2021 NL Pennant Odds and Picks
We have seen the World Series Champions come out of the National League the past two seasons. This year it's a little bit more open than most anticipated nearly two months through the season.
The NL East which was projected to be one of the tougher divisions in baseball has lived up to the billing so far. Except for the fact that we expected more quality than mediocrity through about 40 games or so. It's fair to say that two teams within this division have virtually a long shot of making the playoffs with their current roster, the Nationals, and the Marlins. Despite making the expanded playoffs in a shortened season the Miami Marlins didn't make any additions that say they will compete this season.
Already losing the young and talented Sixto Sanchez for a large portion of the season and Starling Marte to injury, the fish are just treading water. Sitting at a +5000 clip on both DraftKings and PointsBet, there isn't much to put down here unless you love miracles. The same can be said for the Washington Nationals, when healthy they have a top-notch trio in their rotation with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. Max is on a decline but still a CY Young caliber pitcher on his best day but Strasburg has issues staying on the field and Corbin is pitching more like your average number 3 pitcher instead of a nine-figure pitcher. As for the lineup? Trea Turner and Juan Soto are as talented as any but how much do we trust the rest of that lineup over 162 games in this division? I don't so again, at +4000 (DraftKings) & +3300 (PointsBet). Fade these two ball clubs and expect some potential trades around July.
NL Pennant Odds
Odds provided by BettingData
Shifting our eyes to the top contenders within the division, the Phillies, Mets, and Braves. All three of these teams have talent in all facets of the game, what it comes down to is who is the most complete with the best value at the current day. In Philadelphia, there has been an obvious willingness to spend and spend big on Free Agents in recent years like Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler while also retaining the game's best catcher, J.T. Realmuto. With all of this, they have a good lineup, a good 1-2 punch with Nola and Wheeler but there isn't anything to be excited about after that and then there's their ill-fated bullpen that has made strides but gets you sick to your stomach anytime there is a close game. Phillies at +1800 on both sites is not bad but in the grand scheme of things? They aren't complete just yet, too many question marks for my liking.
Now down south to the Braves where they have a fantastic lineup that is loaded with talent and was one game away from the World Series last season with a 3-1 lead before the Dodgers came back and went on to win the World Series. They have been decimated with their starting rotation, their biggest addition of the offseason is quite literally Pablo Sandoval. They will be without Mike Soroka for most of the season and the bullpen is mediocre at best, however, there is some hope. Potentially gaining Soroka and their staff holding their own until the lineup shows up, DraftKings has a listed price of +1000 with this division wide open that helps them sneak into October. For me they are the best value on the board for a team that has the talent to win come the fall, the Braves are the best play from the NL East.
As for the Mets, we can keep this short and sweet. The best rotation in the NL East despite not having Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard for more than two months in the season is something exceptional and worthy of applause. Sitting at +500 on both sites, the Mets have had one of the best bullpens in baseball this season as well. Great pitching will keep you in every single game and it will certainly help you the most come October. The fact is that the biggest worry for the Mets is not what they will do in October but rather what they can do throughout 162 games. They rank in the bottom half in quite a few offensive categories and have been brutal with RISP. What it comes down to is this, will they make a big addition come deadline day and how healthy will that lineup be? If the Mets win this division then the play at +500 becomes very solid but if it's the WC? The value takes a massive hit. Bet this number if you trust in them winning the division and nothing more.
We move to the weakest division in the National League, the NL Central. The Pirates and the Reds aren't going to be making much noise this season and are teams that are expected to become sellers at the deadline, especially the Reds with the likes of Eugenio Suarez. The Pirates could end up being the worst team in baseball so there's not much else to say when betting this.
Now down to a similar situation as the East, the Central has three viable teams that can make the playoffs but only one can be a division winner, and the other looking unlikely for a Wild Card berth. The Brewers sit at +1300 and +1200 respectfully and that's not that bad a number considering how they have done a good job of re-tooling and reloading talent in a small market. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are a fantastic combo and the best in the division by far. Again much like the other teams, they don't have that elite roster and the uncertainties in recent times with Christian Yelich leads you to believe that they aren't a great bet in this spot. I will be fading the Brewers here.
Down to the final two teams who are heated rivals, the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs, are a talented team with decent pitching, the talented top end of the lineup, and an ok bullpen. Despite all of these things, there are whispers that they will blow this thing up if they aren't in a great position come summertime. That's certainly a scary thought if you want to bet on these guys, Kris Bryant, Wilson Contreras, Javy Baez, and Anthony Rizzo are going to hit free agency or are close to it. If they can't get deals done to re-sign them, then they'll sell as soon as possible to retain value. For that alone, I will not bet on the Cubs
The Cardinals are division favorites this season and have been before the Nolan Arenado addition which has paid off in so many ways so far. They have a very nice rotation and a decent enough bullpen with the likes of Jordan Hicks at the back end of it. +1100 and +1300 are fantastic value and the best in the division by far considering their odds of winning it in the first place. Their staff is strong but isn't littered with All-Stars, but again, speaking on a team that can just make it to the playoffs and moves from there? Value is the play here if you like that, otherwise don't trust them too much to win out.
The NL West has incredible talent all-around, but its bottom could not be more depleted of talent. The Rockies and Diamondbacks aren't in the discussion for this topic so we will put them aside for this conversation.
The San Francisco Giants are the biggest surprise in baseball seasoning above their weight, playing great defense, and having a rejuvenated Buster Posey. Sitting at +2000 and +2500 respectfully that is a lofty number to expect a team pulling this out, they lack the overall talent the Dodgers and Padres do. My expectation is for this hot start to fade and they will be fighting for a Wild-Card spot but considering that division, it's not worth me considering them at this price.
Down to the two overall favorites in the National League, the Padres and the Dodgers have played some of the most exciting baseball games in years. Let's put it this way, the best value out of these two is the Padres at +400 for sure due to the Dodgers sitting at +160. There isn't that much to convince me that it's a dynamite bet for the defending champions. You get your plus money at face value but if you want to cash out the Padres are the way to go.
San Diego has the talent in the rotation lead by Blake Snell and Yu Darvish. They have fantastic hitters in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. They just need to win this division then the bet becomes fantastic, I understand that's my theme for this piece but Wild Card games are too dangerous to mess around with considering the endless possibilities in a one-all game. For me, the Padres are the best value pick in the National League at +500.
My Pick: San Diego Padres +500
Martino Puccio
Martino is a freelance writer for The Athletic for Soccer Sports Gambling and is also an Alumni of Iona College with a Masters degree in Sports Communications in Media. You can follow him on Twitter at @Martinopuccio.
