Betting The NHL Semifinal Rounds
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We’re down to the final four teams remaining in the 2021 NHL Playoffs, but unlike in years past, there will be no Eastern or Western Conference Championship. Instead, the final four teams were re-seeded based on regular-season points totals to accommodate the COVID-19 realignment and international restrictions.
With the Canadian-U.S. border open for hockey travel, concerns of the need for a bubble have been alleviated, and fans will be in attendance in some capacity at each venue. With all that in mind, here is an updated look at everything you’ll need to know before betting on the NHL Semifinal Rounds.
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Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are the Stanley Cup favorite at +105. They are also -455 to win their semifinal series against the Montreal Canadiens.
Vegas finished the regular season tied with the Colorado Avalanche in points, but they missed home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs on the regulation wins the tiebreaker.
Still, the Golden Knights beat the Minnesota Wild in seven games in the first round, then got their revenge against the Avalanche in the second round, erasing a 2-0 series deficit to eliminate Colorado in six games.
In four seasons as a franchise, the Golden Knights have advanced to the semifinal round three times. Vegas is a well-built team that has few roster flaws. They play a physical style that irritates opponents and can lead to ill-timed penalties. Vegas also has the high-end scoring ability from players like Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone to lean on for a clutch goal.
Marc-André Fleury is 36 years old but just put up the best season of his career, setting career highs in GAA (1.98) and save percentage (.928), along with six shutouts. Fleury has continued that excellence in the postseason, ranking second in GAA (1.91) despite playing the offensive juggernaut Avalanche in the second round.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning are +270 to win the Cup and -109 to win their semifinal series against the New York Islanders.
As the defending Stanley Cup Champions, the Lightning are a powerhouse team. They’ve already shown they have what it takes to win in the playoffs, and with a nearly identical roster from their 2020 team, Tampa Bay is likely the betting public’s favorite to win the Cup this year as well.
However, the Lightning’s odds saw a serious shakeup after dropping Game One at home against the Islanders. Following the 2-1 loss, Tampa Bay’s odds rose to +270 after previously being around +150. Perhaps more damning, the Islanders are now slight series favorites at -112, though New York’s Stanley Cup odds haven’t passed Tampa Bay yet. Bettering the Lightning’s chances is their elite goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was recently named a finalist for the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender for the fourth consecutive year. Vasilevskiy won the Vezina in 2019.
Tampa Bay is also one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league. Nikita Kucherov leads all playoff scorers in points (five goals, 14 assists), and the next closest player to Kucherov, who is still active in the playoffs, is linemate Brayden Point (nine goals, four assists). If Game One was merely a hiccup and not the start of a trend, Tampa Bay could become just the second team in the Salary Cap era to repeat as Cup champions.
New York Islanders
After winning Game One of the semifinal series in Tampa Bay, the Islanders’ odds jumped up to -112 to win the series and +360 to win the Stanley Cup.
The Islanders win games by slowing down the pace with a neutral zone trap, forcing turnovers into odd-man rushes the other way, and scoring on the counterattack. They are incredibly sound defensively and rarely make mistakes on their own end. One of the key matchups to watch in this series is how well New York can break the puck out past Tampa Bay’s forecheck.
While they are known for their defensive style, the Islanders are shooting nearly 10% while 5-on-5, the highest conversion rate ever in the Barry Trotz era. Beyond choosing smart, high-danger shots and getting to high-percentage scoring areas, New York has been converting at a higher rate than anyone else in the playoffs. Vegas is the only team shooting close to New York at 5-on-5 (9.0%); Tampa Bay is shooting 6.9%.
Semyon Varlamov led the NHL in shutouts (seven) in the regular season; he was also second in save percentage (.929) and fourth in GAA (2.04). After being snubbed as a Vezina finalist, Varlamov stopped 30 of 31 shots in Sunday’s Game One win. If he continues to play at this level, the Islanders will be a tough team to stop.
Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are +350 to upset the Golden Knights in the semifinals and +1100 to win the Stanley Cup.
Montreal’s miraculous run to the semifinals is a case study of how analytics can outweigh high-end talent during the playoffs. The Canadiens are the best penalty-killing playoff team at 90.3%, and they’ve scored four shorthanded goals (the rest of the league has six shorthanded goals in the playoffs).
Like the Islanders, Montreal is converting on their scoring chances at a high rate, accounting for almost 64% of the expected goals in their series against the Jets. The Canadiens clog up the middle of the ice, forcing opponents to take lower percentage shots from the half wall or the blue line and also clear the traffic from directly in front of the net, allowing Carey Price a clean look.
Price has been excellent in the playoffs as well, as he is known to be. He leads all netminders in save percentage (.935) and is third in GAA (1.97). Sometimes, all it takes to win is a hot goaltender playing well at the right time. That’s exactly what Montreal has in Price.
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
