Golf Betting Tips For the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Golf Betting Tips for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
The 2021 edition of the Sentry Tournament of Champions features a field of just 42 golfers but, surprisingly enough, that's the most players in the history of this event. There's $6.7M on the line this week, the winner gets an injection of $1.34M into their bank account and also banks 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. The year's tournament will again be played at the Kapalua Resort - Plantation Course, it measures out at almost 7,600 yards, is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour, and the greens are bermudagrass. You want to bet on golfers who are strong in the birdie making category, ones who avoid bogeys, who are solid off the tee, are sound on approach, and who score well on par 5s. Increase your confidence in each one of your golf bets by using these valuable tools and analytics. Over the past 10 years, the winning score averages -21.6 so you want golfers who can go low over the course of four rounds.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
20 to 1 and lower
Dustin Johnson (6.5 to 1) - If you're going to bet an outright winner this week I would advise that it be Dustin Johnson. He has four wins in his last 11 starts and that includes his most recent tournament played at the Masters that he won by a landslide. He has already won this event twice in his career, most recently three years ago in 2018, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if he captured his third victory this week. In the past five years at the Tournament of Champions, DJ has finished no worse than T10.
Justin Thomas (7.5 to 1) - Thomas has been playing some mighty solid golf lately with five straight top 12's including a 4th at the Masters and a runner-up finish at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. He and his Dad are also coming off a win at the PNC Championship a few weeks ago, so he's likely in a great state of mind right now. He won three times last season on the PGA Tour, he's won 13 times already in his young career and two of those came at this event, plus he's the defending champ to boot. Need I say more about JT?!
Avoid: Bryson DeChambeau (11.5 to 1) - DeChambeau won three starts ago at the U.S. Open so it's tough to say to avoid betting on him this week, but he has been a bit inconsistent as of late by his standards and was T34 at the Masters in his most recent start. He has a 7th and a 26th at this event, and he could do alright this week but I don't see a win coming. He's 2.25 to 1 if you want to bet him to have a top 5 finish, but I wouldn't do much more than that this week with DeChambeau.
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21 to 1 - 50 to 1
Cameron Smith (45 to 1) - Smith was very impressive at the Masters where he had four consistent rounds of sound golf and it netted him a runner-up finish. He was also T4 two starts ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and just looks like he's fully confident with his game right now. He's the defending champ of next week's Sony Open and I suspect he will want to have momentum going into it, so this week I believe that he will impress us with a high finish. He was T17 three years ago here, but his game has grown leaps and bounds since then and I see no reason why the talented Aussie won't have a top 5 or 10 finish this week with the potential to pull down the win.
Harris English (35 to 1) - English and Kuchar won by 9 strokes at the QBE Shootout three weeks ago and let's be honest here, English really carried the load for the duo to secure the win. He has a T5 and a T6 over his past two starts and four top 10's in his last six events this season. He hasn't played here in seven years because that's the last time he won on the PGA Tour but did finish T11 in 2014. I wouldn't bet English outright but would feel great about a top 5 or 10 wager on him.
Avoid: Scottie Scheffler (35 to 1) - Scheffler was buzzing late last season before he contracted COVID-19, and since then his best finish is a 17th, he has a missed cut, a T52, and other mediocre finishes. He is coming off a T19 at the Masters but that doesn't excite me enough to place a bet on him this week, plus he's a rookie at this event with no PGA Tour wins or track record to go on so I'm perfectly fine leaving him be this week and will wait until his game heats up again.
51 to 1 - 100 to 1
Cameron Champ (66 to 1) - 25-year-old Champ already has two wins on the PGA Tour and has some good experience at this event with a T14 here last year and a T11 in 2019. He was T8 two starts ago at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and looked quite good in his most recent start at the Masters with a T19 in his rookie debut. I wouldn't bet him to win this week but I would be comfortable with a top 10 wager where he's 3.35 to 1.
Carlos Ortiz (100 to 1) - Ortiz has surely never felt better about his golfing career than now as he locked down his first PGA Tour win two starts ago at the Vivint Houston Open and is coming off a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in his homeland of Mexico. He will get his first taste of the Tournament of Champions this week, and while I wouldn't bet him to win at 100 to 1, I wouldn't sneeze at throwing down a small wager on him for a top 5 (12 to 1) or a top 10 (5 to 1).
Avoid: Marc Leishman (90 to 1) - What has happened to Marc Leishman?! He has really faded over the last year or so even despite winning at the Farmers Insurance Open last January. He has 7 missed cuts in his last 15 events and most of his other finishes were terrible too, even in non-cut events. He does have some good finishes at this tournament, but that was years ago when his game was in much better shape. I wouldn't bet on Leishman any time soon - even if I was playing with house money I would likely just save my time because nobody is making money on the 37-year-old Aussie these days and I don't expect that to change any time soon.
101 to 1 and higher
MacKenzie Hughes (150 to 1) - I'm not really too keen on this range at all but I think that Hughes is likely the best of the worst down here. He has sneaky high finishes at times including a T3 and a T7 in his last 5 starts and was sizzling in last season's playoffs with top 14's in each of the playoff events. I don't think I would bet Hughes higher than a top 20 this week and that's only 1.4 to 1 from DK Sportsbook, but he could find himself in the top 5 when all is said and done on Sunday.
Lanto Griffin (125 to 1) - Griffin was 13th here last year in his first look in this event so that's not too shabby. He had 4 top 10's last season and has a T7 and a T11 thus far in 6 events this season so he does pop off at times. If you're keen on betting Lanto this week then you can take a shot at a top 20 for him where he's 1.5 to 1, or potentially a top 10 where he's 5.5 to 1.
Avoid: Richy Werenski (400 to 1) - Werenski won the Barracuda Championship last August to qualify for this event, but keep in mind that field was pretty awful and it was his first and only win on the PGA Tour. Since then, the 29-year-old has been mostly terrible and his best finish so far this season is a T28 in 7 starts and that finish came in a non-cut event with a small-ish field. If you want to bet Werenski this week you should reconsider and might as well light your cash on fire because it would result in the same outcome in the end.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
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Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
