Golf Betting Tips for the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour heads southwest from North Carolina to the Dallas, Texas, area for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a fairly consistent tournament on the schedule since 1944 with the exception of last year as it was canceled due to the pandemic, and a few other years were also canceled for various reasons. TPC Craig Ranch will be hosting this event for the first time in the tournament's history, the field consists of 156 players, and the top 65 plus ties after round 2 will move forward to play the weekend rounds on Saturday and Sunday.
There's $8.1M on the line to be won this week, the winner will receive $1.458M, and also collect 500 FedEx Cup points. TPC Craig Ranch is 7,468 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the past ten editions is -14.2 but that number is irrelevant as different courses were used during that time period. The tournament record is held by Kang Sung-Hoon and Aaron Wise with a score of -23 which came in 2018 and 2019 at the Trinity Forest Golf Club. Place bets on golfers this week who are excellent with their approach game, have solid tee-to-green play, manage par 5's well, putt nicely on bentgrass, and who can make birdies and eagles as scores should be low this week.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2500 and lower
Jordan Spieth (+1100) - Spieth is perfectly positioned to win this week as he just won two starts ago at the Texas Open in his native homeland, and now he's likely well practiced up and ready to go at another Texan course that the local more than likely has lots of rounds played at, whereas most of the players this week have never even heard of this course before. He has five top 5's in his last seven starts and he was T9 at the WGC match-play event during that stretch, as well. I think you could bet Spieth to win, to finish top 5 and to finish top 10 this week and come out well ahead financially, just how far ahead has yet to be seen.
Bryson DeChambeau (+800) - Dechambeau is now the betting favorite in the field since Dustin Johnson has pulled out of competition this week, and I think his long and strong game will play well on this course. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational four stroke-play tournaments ago, he followed that up with a T3 at THE PLAYERS, and he's coming off a T9 last week thanks to super-strong weekend play. I don't think I would bet Bryson to win this week because he has no course history to draw on and a bunch of other solid players do so they have an advantage on him in that department, but I think a top 5 or a top 10 wager especially, would work just fine.
Avoid: Brooks Koepka (+2300) - Koepka looked like he was in pain in his last start at The Masters after his knee surgery - he couldn't even bend down that well to read the slopes on the greens. I could see him doing decent this week as he's a gamer, he won four starts ago at the Phoenix Open, 40% of his starts this season are top 7's, and he could push hard this week before next week's PGA Championship. I don't see a top 10 for Brooks this week though, and I want to see another good finish before I consider betting him again.
+2600 to +5000
Ryan Palmer (+4500) - Palmer is another Texan who's playing well and likely has course experience at TPC Craig Ranch, so I like his chances to finish top 10 or at least a top 20 should be in the cards. He has three top 4's this season, has two top 17's in his last four stroke-play events, finished T7 with Jon Rahm at the Zurich Classic, and he had another T17 at the WGC match-play event. Safely bet him for a top 20 this week, or you could roll the dice on him to finish top 10.
Marc Leishman (+3500) - Leishman was part of the winning team at the Zurich Classic - he and fellow Aussie, Cameron Smith, took that one down, so he's coming in hot. Prior to that, he finished T5 at The Masters, so he's playing some great golf at the moment and I want to cash in on it. I also like that he finished T7 in 2008 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship when the event was held right here at TPC Craig Ranch. I think the stars are aligning for Leishman this week - a top 20 feels like a great bet to me, or a top 10 might work if you want to take on more risk and potential reward.
Avoid: Harris English (+4500) - English has been sputtering since he won the Tournament of Champions in early January - since then he has no top 20's in eight starts, and I just don't see any betting value for Harris this week.
+5100 to +10000
Doug Ghim (+7000) - Once Ghim starts to figure out his putting then he can actually contend at more tournaments, sort of like how he was in the mix at THE PLAYERS before imploding in round 4 with a 78 no thanks to losing almost two strokes putting. He has been striking the ball extremely well though, so once the putting woes are resolved and his wedges come to life, then top 10's should start flowing. I think a top 30 bet on Ghim is fine this week, but don't go any higher than that as the risk isn't worth it until the flat stick heats up.
Thomas Pieters (+7000) - Pieters doesn't play in North America very much but does play well when he tees it up in the states and on the islands. In three starts this season on the PGA Tour he has a T13, a T15, and a T23 which came at the U.S. Open. I think a top 20 bet on Pieters is very doable this week, or you could place a top 10 wager on him if you feel like he's going to break through with a high finish.
Avoid: Rickie Fowler (+8500) - I was somewhat bullish on Fowler last week as he was at a course that he's had a lot of success on over the years including getting his first PGA Tour win there in 2012, but he failed miserably and missed the cut. He has no top 10's this season and just two top 20's, his best one being a T17 at the Texas Open. His golf game is in the sh%&#er these days and shouldn't be bet on in any capacity.
+11000 and higher
Camilo Villegas (+15000) - Villegas has four top 25's in his last five starts and two of those were top 11's. He's striking the ball very well now and his putter has been hot as of late too. I think you can do a top 20 bet on Camilo this week, or go in the top 30 direction if you want to be more cautious with your wager.
Brice Garnett (+12500) - Garnett is another player who has experience on this track as he finished T19 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2012. I also like that he has two top 9's in his last seven events, and he and his partner finished T11 at the Zurich Classic, so that's a positive too. Betting Brice to finish top 20 or top 30 works for me this week, I've never bet him before, but this week makes sense to drop a few dollars on him.
Avoid: Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+60000) - Aphibarnrat actually used to be decent at golf but now he's not - even on the Korn Ferry Tour he's failing as he missed the cut horribly last week. He has missed four straight cuts in total, and has only made one cut in his last seven events - that finish was a T67. The best finish in his last three starts was a T110 - I could go on and on about his awful play this season, but I think you get the point.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
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Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
