NCAA Tournament Opening Round Upset Watch
The wait is over! The big dance has arrived. The NCAA Tournament is here. We have a bracket. We have teams. We know the matchups. Now it’s time to give you the best first round upsets of the tournament. Here they are:
Duquesne Dukes +9.5 over Brigham Young Cougars
The long time head coach of the Duquesne Dukes announced he was going to retire at the end of the season. Now, his players have no choice but to go out and win this game in Brooklyn, right? The Dukes went through an epic run in the Atlantic 10 conference, with wins over Saint Louis, Dayton, St. Bonaventure and VCU. They have not lost a game since February 23rd at Fordham. The Dukes do nothing spectacular, but everything well.
They allowed just 51 points in the conference title game against VCU. For Brigham Young, it was a terrific first season as members of the Big 12. The Cougars won some big games, and were competitive from start to finish. The Cougars love to shoot the three point shot, but when they are not falling, this team really struggles. The Dukes know this, and will make sure they have a plan to defend. As the game goes on, and shots keep missing, the pressure mounts.
We like Duquesne to win this game straight up. We are taking them at +9.5, and also +340 on the moneyline!
Samford Bulldogs +8.5 over Kansas Jayhawks
When you are struggling like Bill Self and his Kansas Jayhawks are, no first round matchup looks safe. But, the Samford Bulldogs in the first round was not a good spot for the Jayhawks. The 4th seeded Jayhawks have lost back-to-back games and got smoked in both. Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson are the top two scorers for Kansas, and are questionable to play in this game.
We have seen the Jayhawks without them, and it is not pretty. Kansas already lacked depth as they have all season. For Samford, after losing their first two games of the season, they have won 29 out of their last 32. The Bulldogs are the Southern Conference Champions, and are one of the best three point shooting teams in all of College Basketball. The Bulldogs made nearly 10 three point shots per game.
That is a recipe for a disaster, as shots keep falling and falling. Samford pulls a big upset here. Take the Bulldogs +8.5 and +290 on the moneyline!
James Madison Dukes +5.5 over Wisconsin Badgers
The Dukes of James Madison are the winners of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. The hottest team in the country, along with McNeese State. The Dukes have won 13 straight games, James Madison scored 91 in the conference title game against Arkansas State. On the season, the Dukes are scoring just shy of 85 points per game. James Madison is full of athleticism. The Badgers are coming off a loss in the Big Ten title game.
Wisconsin wants to play more of a physical game, while the Dukes are going to want to run. Look for the Dukes to cause some havoc with their defense, and force Wisconsin into some bad situations. In the end, the James Madison Dukes get to the second round with a win.
We are going to take James Madison +5.5, and +190 on the moneyline!
Grand Canyon Antelopes +5.5 over Saint Mary’s Gaels
This is the final game of the first round. The game will be played out West - in Spokane Washington. Two West Coast teams mixing it up. The Antelopes, led by head coach Bryce Drew, have won five straight games. In fact, they have lost just four games all season. They scored 89 points in their conference tournament title game.
This team can score, with nearly 80 per game. They are a very solid, disciplined team, led by the scoring of Tyon Grant-Foster.
The Gaels are certainly not a slouch. Winners of the West Coast Conference, by beating Gonzaga. It will be 10 days between games for St. Mary’s. You have to wonder if that is a positive or a negative. The Gaels will want to keep the scoring down, and likely not run with the Antelopes. In the end, Grand Canyon hits some shots, and pulls off the final upset of the first round.
We are going to take the Grand Canyon +5.5, and also +190 on the moneyline!
Others to Consider:
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Morehead State Eagles +11.5 over Illinois Fighting Illini
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McNeese State Cowboys +6.5 over Gonzaga Bulldogs
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UAB Blazers +6.5 over San Diego State Aztecs
There you have it. We will be back next week with Sweet 16 and Elite 8 picks, and who we are going to take to the Final Four. The NCAA Tournament is glorious, but it goes quick. Enjoy each and every game, and best of luck with all your betting!
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
