NHL Betting Trends: The First Period Over/Under
NHL Betting Trends
NHL betting created some trends in the past several years. This year spawned a new one. That's right! The first period over/
What is the First Period Over/Under?
Typically, most people have a good understanding of how NHL point spreads work, but Over/Under for goals scored by period has flipped the NHL sports betting community on its side.
1.5 is the standard number for the first period Over/Under goals. It's higher in the second and third period because of more implied, err expected scoring. The Sportsbooks set the number. During those twenty minutes, teams typically feel each other out which tends to lower, early totals. On the other hand, some games have a way of just being higher-scoring from the beginning. Those are the games to look at. Consequently, there exists a big variable to keep in mind. Bookies see these games coming from a mile away as well most of the time. Let's set the amounts.
- -105 to -115 -- Green
- -120 to -135 -- Yellow
- -140 and higher -- Red
Now, those upper amounts are just a red flag. it does not mean to completely avoid those props. Typically the negative numbers are tilted toward the over. With scoring up to 6.1 goals per game combined, the Over/Under keeps increasing. More and more 6.5's are seen. With goals happening earlier and earlier, even the 1.5 for the first period has seen increased activity. Simplifying things further, the over means two goals or more will be scored in the first period. Furthermore, the under signifies one goal or zero will be scored during the opening twenty minutes.
For the under (usually the plus side, the numbers look like this.
- +100 to +105 -- Green
- +110 to +115 -- Yellow
- +120 and higher -- Red
The same principles apply. Red does not mean don't touch. It just accentuates the risk involved. There also is a higher value. Again, the under can be harder to ascertain from trends and numbers. Sometimes, even the most accomplished bettor can get seduced by statistics. The Over/Under on this prop is far different than betting on the moneyline or the spread. It is time to let the implied become applied.
Applying The Numbers
Alas, keeping this as simple as possible as essential. If a bettor places $100 on an over/under, how much money do they win? Here are some dollar amounts based on those numbers.
- +110 -- $110
- -105 -- $95
- -120 -- $83
These are some examples of the lines one usually sees when betting the Over/Under. For example, Monday night's game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers became a lightning rod of sorts. Most know about the over/under at 6.5 is too low a majority of the time. Also, the first-period prop typically trends to the over as these teams score early and often. Seven of the last nine matchups saw the over in the first-period hit and in some cases, comfortably. Sometimes the numbers do not work so well. Furthermore, late-breaking news can change outlooks as well. All it takes is an injury or unexpected line/goalie change. This all goes into trying to predict which games will go under or over in the first twenty minutes.
Zeroing In On Teams To Look At
The challenge is finding those teams to use. Even then, keep in mind that one will not win all the time. There are always those one or two times where the unexpected occurs. One of the biggest teams that have tendencies on the over is the Chicago Blackhawks. Particularly, the first period over was a big trend for the Blackhawks. At one point, Chicago hit on 22 of 25 which is quite the run. That included 11 in a row. Lately, the Washington Capitals had been on a roll with the over as well. Monday night's game between them and Los Angeles was no exception. The two teams combined for four goals in the first period. Defensive porousness plays a role in this. Teams that give up goals early have to be looked at as well as teams that do not. New Jersey on the road is another one. They allow nearly four goals a game and half of them in the first period. Anaheim has given up two or more goals during the first period in eight of their last 12 games.
Stingier teams like Dallas, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay are good when it comes to the under early on. Again, this is not automatic. Unexpected results can always occur. The under carries more value at times. It can be a risk worth taking. Most bettors focus on the over by nature. Again, as we mentioned earlier, the tendency to fixate on the over has been second nature this year. With scoring up and trending higher, the first period over/under will be a trend that continues to be enticing throughout the season.
