Over/Under Betting Strategy
One of the most popular bets in the sports betting industry is what is known as an over/under bet. This bet can also be referred to as a “totals” bet, and it gives bettors a chance to focus on points or runs as opposed to which team will win the game. With an over/under bet, you are simply trying to predict the total number of points or runs that will be scored in a particular game. Sportsbooks will set the betting lines, and then you can either pick “over” or “under.
This is not a very difficult bet to understand, but that doesn’t mean that it is an easy one to win. If you are planning on making an over/under bet, then here are some betting strategies that you need to consider.
Sports Lives
Make Early Bets
One of the most common betting strategies that you will hear mentioned when it comes to over/under betting is to get your bets in early. This is a much different strategy than what is used when betting spreads or money lines, but this is also a much different betting type.
The reason that you want to make an over/under bet as early as possible is due to it usually being when that bet has the most value. Sportsbooks set the opening lines, and they have not had a ton of time to research or make adjustments to these lines.
This doesn’t mean that you have to make an over/under bet the second that a betting line is posted, but you have a better shot of winning that bet if you make it early.
Anticipate Line Movement
If you are someone that likes to wait to make an over/under bet, then you also need to keep a very close eye on the over/under lines. These can change several different times leading up to the game, but you usually won’t see a huge jump either way.
If you are going to be successful when betting over/unders, then you need to anticipate the line movement before it is made by the sportsbooks. Do your research early, and be ready to react if you see the line move in the direction that you were anticipating.
Sports betting is a battle between you and the bookmaker, and jumping on a “mistake” in the lines can lead to a nice payday for you.
Check Injury Report
Football and hockey are two of the most physical sports out there, but injuries occur in all of the sports offered by sportsbooks. One thing that you must do before making any wager is to check out the injury report for each team.
Most bettors seem to think that injuries only have an effect on the spread betting lines, but that is simply not the case. Over/under lines are also affected by key injuries, especially if star players are sitting out.
Most professional sports have strict rules on reporting injuries, and the information should be readily available to you with just a little effort.
Look at Weather Conditions
Depending on the sport that you want to bet on, the weather could play a huge role in the over/under betting outcome. Football and baseball are the two biggest sports that can be dictated by weather, but there are other markets out there as well.
You can usually get a good idea of the forecasted weather well in advance of the game that is being played, but it is always a smart move to continue to monitor any changes in weather patterns. A football game played in the 50-degree sun will play out a lot differently than one that is played in snowy and windy conditions.
Baseball is usually most affected by the wind, especially in some stadiums throughout Major League Baseball. It is usually harder to find the wind conditions until just before game time, but MLB over/under lines aren’t released that early anyways.
The weather might not have any impact on the way the game is played at all, but you should always keep this in mind before you make an over/under bet.
Do Plenty of Research
Even after using all of the strategies listed above, you still need to do an extensive amount of research on your own. You can never arm yourself with too much information when betting on sports, and that goes for over/under betting as well.
You always want to take a close look at recent betting trends for each team in a matchup, especially as it relates to over/under results. If teams have already matched up earlier in the season, looking at the results of that game could help you make a solid over/under pick for the next matchup.
Each sport has different stats and information that you need to look into, but it’s your job to find it and apply it.
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
