UFC Fight Night Preview: Overeem vs. Volkov
UFC Fight Night Preview: Overeem vs. Volkov
The UFC is making a return back to Las Vegas for its next fighting event on Feb. 6. The betting market for UFC Fight Night odds show a stacked card with an impressive main event showdown.
Looking at the main event, the fifth- and sixth-ranked heavyweight contenders will square off in a match that you do not want to miss, as Alistair Overeem takes on Alexander Volkov.
- Date: Feb. 6 at 8 pm ET
- Venue: UFC APEX - Las Vegas
- Stream: ESPN+
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Main Event Preview
Alistair Overeem (47-18-0) enters this showdown riding a two-fight winning streak. In fact, he has won four out of his last five fights.
His last loss was a knockout against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in December of 2019. He was leading that fight and on his way to a decision victory before getting clipped with a few seconds left in the final round. The man does not need much of an introduction, but he has put together one of the UFC's great resumes. He has 25 wins by knockout, 17 by submission, and five by decision.
"The Demolition Man" is a former world titleholder in kickboxing. Over the years, he has improved his striking ability and his wrestling.
Overeem has a very solid striking accuracy at 64 percent and a takedown accuracy of 56 percent. He puts up 3.71 significant strikes a minute but also defends well at 2.33. Defensively against takedowns, he has been successful at 73 percent and defends against significant strikes at around 58 percent. His ground game also shows 1.44 takedowns and 0.80 submissions in each fight.
Alexander Volkov (32-8-0) is returning to action after a much-needed victory and winning three of his last five bouts. He will look to gain some momentum in a very tough division.
His last fight was a TKO victory against Walt Harris in October of 2020. Previously, he lost to Curtis Blaydes in a tough unanimous decision where he was dominated on ground and pounds. "Drago" has put together a great resume as well. He has 21 wins by knockout, three by submission, and eight by decision.
Volkov is a former M-1 and Bellator heavyweight champion. During his time in the UFC, he has gone 6-2 since making his promotional debut back in 2016. He has a moderate striking accuracy at 58 percent and an even better takedown accuracy at 70 percent. He puts up 4.76 significant strikes while also absorbing only 2.53.
His defense is solid, with a takedown defense at 65 percent and a significant strike defense coming in at 56 percent. In each fight, he also averages 0.69 takedowns and 0.20 submissions.
Fight Prediction
When looking at the betting market, it has shown on average to display Overeem as an underdog and Volkov as the favorite. Overeem opened as the slight favorite, but the odds will change over time.
Volkov is an excellent kickboxer, so this brings an element that Overeem has never seen before, at least within the UFC. He will need to be aware, at least, and avoid rushing in, which would leave his chin vulnerable.
Overeem's chin has been questionable for years, with 14 out of his 18 losses coming by knockout. Volkov definitely does not have the same knockout power as Rozenstruik, Francis Ngannou, Stipe Miocic, or Curtis Blaydes, but he still needs to be respected enough. With that being said, Overeem has only been knocked out by some of the most lethal killers in the division. Keep in mind, too, that he himself is arguably a knockout threat as he has taken out more fighters in the last five years than he has been knocked out by.
Needless to say, he will be a threat to Volkov. The Russian has shown a tendency to become comfortable in the pocket. This is a great opportunity for Overeem to take advantage and turn that into a takedown. Overeem is arguably the better fighter when looking at the ground performances. This fight will be very technical and mostly tactical.
However, it could potentially end with Overeem taking ground control to deliver bombs from a dominant position.
Winning Pick
There's no doubt that this is a remarkable matchup between these two. Together, they have combined for 79 wins and are also excellent kickboxers. This should be an impressive scrapping match but also very organized. Looking into the betting market, Overeem provides the best value and your consideration. Volkov has a legitimate chance to win this matchup, especially against someone with a questionable chin. However, he will need to be dominant in his striking battle. Overall, look for the UFC veteran to get the job done. Overeem has another potential title shot in his future if he can pull off a victory here.
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
