2021 World Series Future Odds and Pick
World Series Future Odds
A little over a month into the 2021 MLB season we finally have a decent sample size of what teams are looking like. We have already witnessed quite a few injuries throughout the league that have impacted some teams as they have gotten off to slow starts, with the likes of Christian Yelich heading to the IL yet again and Dodgers superstar Cody Bellinger only playing in four games this season. That's just two MVP candidates missing this early in the season and on top of it, their respective teams are playoff contenders. What we have gotten to know so far is that their teams have balanced their absences during this early season as they both have winning records.
How much can we truly take away from these early starts? The truth of the matter is this, we are just roughly under 20% of the season for the majority of teams. That's a very small sample size to get any real grip of how good a team truly is. However, it is never too early to place some bets on futures for World Series winners. For most people, futures are black and white in terms of decision-making. They see a team that will more than likely be going to the playoffs, they almost always have plus money odds and they just throw a % of their units towards that team and hope for a healthy ROI.
The truth of the matter is this, futures are almost always about value. We all know that some of these teams that are off to hot starts to begin the season will most likely fade away due to lack of pitching depth, absurdly hot hitting to start the season, we can almost always call out some fluky starts and anticipate a drop-off. We can also apply fluky, poor starts for teams that will most likely be contending after slow starts to the season. In 2019 the Washington Nationals are the best example of this, a 19-31 start to the season but a fantastic pitching staff and a loaded lineup we all knew deep down that they could turn that season around. They did and ending up winning their first title in franchise history. Let's go and find who has the potential to be this year's Nationals or we can simply ride a relatively common favorite but at the best odds for the current moment.
When looking at some of the top teams and favorites our sister site BettingData.com has a fairly common list at the top, Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Mets, Braves, and so on. Neither of these teams is off to a scolding hot start to the year. The Dodgers are currently in a losing stretch that they haven't seen in years, the Yankees are off to a slow start despite turning it around the past ten games or so. As for the Braves, they can't seem to rely on any of their starters and the Mets just fired their hitting coach 23 games into the season. Even at a certain point, the Padres were terrified of losing Fernando Tatis for an extended period and have missed Chris Paddack recently due to covid.
Currently listed the order for these ball clubs in value are at these numbers on DraftKings, Dodgers +325, Yankees +725, Padres +900, Mets +900, and the at Braves +1500. If you wanted to toss in the White Sox at +1200 you can if you like but they have a bevy of long-term injuries that will certainly impact them the rest of this season. I chose to use DraftKings odds for this go around simply due to the fact in comparison with FanDuel these teams have slightly higher odds which means a greater payout for your wager.
Dodgers +325
Coming off their first World Series title since 1988 the team has hit a rough patch which we haven't seen for quite some time, widely regarded as one of baseball's best regular-season teams the past decade. Winning over 90 games in each season since 2013 (outside of 2020) no other team has been able to do so. They have also won three pennants in that time and have gone to three of the last four fall classics. Despite having their worst stretch in years the Dodgers are still posting a winning record and will have their stars returning outside of Dustin May who will require Tommy John Surgery. Despite that their staff is loaded with talent with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Trevor Bauer. When you get to October you are only as good as your next pitcher and the Dodgers will have good pitchers. You could wait a tad longer to get the Dodgers at a better price than +325 but that will most likely be short-lived. So if you love the Dodgers do it now!
Yankees +725
A fantastic regular season team but when it comes to the post-season they haven't been able to get over the hump. For the first time since the 1910s, the Yankees failed to win a pennant in a decade. Their most unsuccessful playoff stretch in a century but they are back with a vengeance. They have one of and if not the deepest team in the American League with no clear favorite to battle with them over the course of the season. The Red Sox are off to a hot start but have a suspect rotation much like the Blue Jays. The A's always come up short in October since the 1980s and the Central Division has some good teams but none are nearly as complete as the Bombers. Health is everything for them how many games will Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton be able to play over the course of the season and will they make it to October? How much can they get out of their pitching staff outside of Gerrit Cole? If Corey Kluber and others can string together some quality starts this team is capable of beating anyone. +725 for the clear AL East favorite seems fantastic to me, if you love the Yankees today is absolutely a great day to lock this pick in.
Padres +900
Perhaps the most electrifying team in baseball at the moment resides in San Diego. Spearheaded by their fantastic pitching staff and super-star shortstop Fernando Tatis this Padres team has everything it needs to win their first-ever World Series title. AJ Preller has been building this farm system up for years and has splashed the cash for players like Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer to complete this roster. They have gone toe to toe with the Dodgers in every game they have faced them in, their pitching has kept them in most games with an MLB leading 2.79 team ERA. The only issue with the Padres is their potential path to the title, if they are NL West division winners they will have a better time in the division series against the winner of the East or Central. If they were to go to the Wild-Card all bets would be off because anything can happen in a single baseball game. I believe the longer the season continues you will see the public throw money on them.
Mets +900 and Braves +1500
I'll combine these two NL East teams for the final stretch here. Both sides have gotten off to slow starts in general. The Mets have only played 23 games so far this season, already fired their hitting coach due to being one of the worst teams in baseball with RISP. However, their bullpen and pitching staff has been fantastic to start the year despite missing Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco. The sheer thought the Mets will be adding to potential All-Stars to their already above-average pitching staff is scary not only for the NL East but for every team in baseball. The reason their number is at this place is the lack of continuity of the staff and lineup playing well at the same time, until the Mets prove they can do both they will stay at this number or even lower. Consider this, if you think the Mets lineup won't be bottom five in baseball and that Francisco Lindor will turn it around, this is a good time as any to grab them at +900. As for the Braves, they have gotten off to a horrible start after being one game away from their first World Series appearance since 1999. Their lineup has struggled to be consistent despite Ronald Acuna Jr. is an MVP candidate and their pitching has been putrid as well. They hope to bring back star pitcher Mike Soroka later in the year but having him come off a torn Achilles puts a damper on that return. We can expect the Braves to continue to struggle with their pitching although the hitting will turn it around eventually, however that doesn't bode well for their postseason if they have to face off against one of the NL West juggernauts. If you have faith in the Braves to turn it around on all fronts you make a play now at these odds, if not, just fade them forever.
My Pick Dodgers +325: I love rolling with value whenever I can get it and honestly it's hard for me to say no to the Dodgers at +325, they're the favorite by a wide margin for a reason and their current stretch isn't going to last forever. Yes, their division is tough but ultimately I think they pull it out and have favorable matchups in the division and championship series. The Dodgers will be baseball's first repeat champions since the 1999-2000 Yankees. Best of luck with your bets!
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Martino Puccio
Martino is a freelance writer for The Athletic for Soccer Sports Gambling and is also an Alumni of Iona College with a Masters degree in Sports Communications in Media. You can follow him on Twitter at @Martinopuccio.
