3 NBA Totals to Consider Monday
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The last week of NBA action before the All-Star break is here, with plenty of games to consider placing a wager on. For Monday's night action, we'll take a look at three games that stick out as strong choices for either their over or under total.
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets - Under 217.5
The first choice from Monday's action can be found between the Cavaliers and Rockets. Multiple factors come into play when choosing an under, and the frontrunner here is each team's record against their total thus far.
The Cavaliers are the fifth-worst team in the NBA against overs, at 14-19-1, while Houston is the third-worst team, at 12-18-1. Oddsmakers know this - it's not a revolutionary trend to follow, and the line may be lower than others on the schedule because of this.
Still, the home team, the Rockets, is an astounding 1-10-1 against the over, by far the worst record in the league. That's a coverage rate of a mere 9.1%. Cleveland is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA at this junction, averaging just 104.5 points per game, while the Rockets aren't far behind, 23rd in the NBA in total points. Big names for each team have been sidelined, from Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo to Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love. No matter how you slice it, these have been two of the worst offenses in the NBA season this season. To further support this game pick, let's break it down.
Shooting percentage? Cleveland is 24th in the league from the floor, at 45.2%, with Houston right behind it at 26th and 44.3% from the field. Cleveland is 20th in the league in total field goals attempted per game, while Houston slots in at 21st in the NBA in extra scoring chances per game. Both teams lack offensive efficiency, with the Rockets finding themselves at 26th in the league, while the Cavaliers are dead last. I believe the point has been made: Don't expect either offense to get into a rhythm for four quarters, supporting our choice to take the under in Houston.
It helps that the Rockets' defense is actually a formidable unit, ranked sixth in the league in defensive efficiency.
Betting Tip: Currently our NBA Odds Comparison page shows there isn't an edge right now with where to bet, maybe bookmark it and see how the lines move.
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls - Over 228.5
The Nuggets have been one of the best teams against the over all season, currently 22-11, or 67%. The Bulls have hit their over more often than not, currently 17-15 for overs.
Both teams have the All-Star talent you look for when betting an over, with Nikola Jokic for Denver and Zach LaVine for Chicago. What sticks out for this game is the lackluster defensive units for each team. Chicago is currently 18th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Denver is 19th.
Points per game has Chicago as the seventh most generous team to opposing offenses, helping our case with this explosive Denver offense. The Nuggets are so much deeper than their star Serbian center, with a loaded and versatile starting lineup. Jamal Murray has been picking up steam of late, with some considering him a snub from the All-Star reserves list. The point guard is averaging 21.6 points per game, with four other Nuggets averaging in double digits in scoring in Michael Porter, Will Barton, Monte Morris, and Paul Millsap.
It should be tough for Chicago to stop this vaunted attack with its weak defense, and it will be on LaVine and co. to instead attempt to keep pace on offense. LaVine is a worthy All-Star, averaging nearly 29 points per game, a huge jump for the 25-year-old shooting guard. Lauri Markkanen, Coby White, and Wendell Carter Jr. round out the offensive firepower, giving the Bulls a chance to get their fair share of points.
Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers - Over 235.5
The last NBA total to consider on Monday night is very likely my favorite, as the Hornets are visiting the Trail Blazers. The beauty of NBA betting is the multitude of simple and advanced metrics at our disposal. Categories throughout your journey would support taking the over in this late game.
Let's start with defensive efficiency, where both teams find themselves in the bottom 10 of the league. Charlotte is 21st, while Portland is 28th. The defensive points per game also confirm the efficiency rankings, with the Trail Blazers allowing the sixth-most points to opposing teams, while the Hornets allow the 10th most.
On the other side, the Trail Blazers are the eighth-most efficient offense, while the Hornets are right in the middle, at 16th. To wrap up the analytical study, if we take a look at field goals attempted, both offenses are in the upper half of the NBA. Portland is at third, while the Hornets are 12th. We haven't yet even touched on the star power on the court between the two teams, the cherry on top of this over pick.
All-Star guard Damian Lillard has thrown Portland on his back in the wake of CJ McCollum's fractured foot, averaging 29.8 points per game and scoring over 30 in 14 of his last 21 games. The star has had support of late from Gary Trent Jr., who averages 15.4 points per game.
The Hornets have been another pleasant surprise from the East this year, with rookie guard LaMelo Ball looking to have all the makings of a star in this league. The Hornets have offensive weapons throughout their lineup, with Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and PJ Washington. Both Rozier and Hayward are averaging over 20 points per game this season and should have plenty of opportunities against this aforementioned weak Trail Blazers defense.
Of the three-game picks for Monday's action, this is likely my favorite. The metrics and the stars are a perfect combination for an over. Charlotte is 17-14-1 vs. the over this season, while Portland is 17-15. That will do it for Monday's favorite totals for your consideration. Best of luck and enjoy the action.
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
