Bet These 3 Favorites Friday in the NBA
The NBA is back in action after a week off for All Star Weekend, and with plenty of action on the Friday slate, it’s time to take a look at a few of the best favorites on which to bet.
Spreads will be released on Friday, but these teams seem well-positioned to win their respective games and cover the spread, regardless of the lines. An asterisk will denote favorites. Let’s get to it.
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Philadelphia 76ers* at Washington Wizards
This game marks one of the more comfortable picks of the night, no matter how you slice it. Philadelphia is tops in the Eastern Conference, with a 24-12 record, on the back of an MVP-caliber season from center Joel Embiid.
Meanwhile, Washington has struggled to the tune of a 14-21 record, with Bradley Beal the lone bright spot on an otherwise desolate roster (besides Russell Westbrook).
Records and stats never tell the entire story when studying NBA teams. By going a level deeper, our assumptions of this game are only confirmed.
Philadelphia is an upper-echelon offense, top ten in points per game and shooting percentage. Their defense is even stronger, a top-five unit across the board in many major metrics.
On the other side is a Washington defense that is one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. At best, the Wizards are 27th in the NBA in the following categories: opponent’s shooting percentage, defensive efficiency, and opponent points per game.
The 76ers should have no issues scoring points against this weak unit. Embiid has turned a corner, averaging 30.2 points per game to go along with 11.6 rebounds and more than a steal and a block each.
Tobias Harris is slotting in nicely with 20.2 points per game, and 51/40/89 shooting splits. One can’t forget the dynamism that Ben Simmons brings to the floor, and the Wizards will struggle to stop his big body from getting to the rim.
You can confidently bet on Philadelphia to take care of Washington Friday night.
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz*
We’ll be following a pretty similar recipe as we bet on the Utah Jazz to cover at home against the Houston Rockets.
The Jazz have been the West’s best team this season, currently at 27-9, while Houston is 11-23 and still piecing together a roster in the wake of the James Harden trade.
While a big spread, the Jazz have shown they can be trusted. They are the best team in the NBA against the spread this season, at 25-11. The Rockets are the worst, at 11-23. It doesn’t get much more lopsided than that.
Utah is one of the most well-rounded teams, as you may guess from their record. When taking a look at their deeper offensive and defensive rankings, they are a top-three team in both categories. That balance, led by Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, is why they’ve been so successful and why you should feel good about betting on them here. Houston has a middling defense and a bottom-ten offense, not enough to keep up with Utah. The Jazz have six players averaging double-digit points. Houston’s leading scorer is Christian Wood, with 22.0 points per game.
The Rockets have a fine roster, with John Wall and Victor Oladpio, but lack the juice to make this a game with Utah. Houston has also lost an astounding 13 games in a row, and there isn’t much reason to believe that will suddenly change.
Bet on the Jazz on Friday.
Betting Tip: Check out our NBA Odds Comparison page for the best daily odds.
Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs*
Our third pick of the night is San Antonio to cover the spread against the Magic at home. The Spurs have surprisingly kept pace with the competitive Western Conference, currently 18-15. Meanwhile, the Magic have struggled in the East, with a 13-23 record.
The logic behind this pick is very similar to the above games: the Spurs are just the better team when digging into the analytics.
While the Spurs' offense is below league-average, the Magic’s is even worse. Orlando has a bottom-ten defense, and San Antonio differentiates itself on that end with a top-ten defensive unit. A strong defense against a weak offense is the exact type of overlap we hope to target when betting on the NBA. San Antonio is 18-15 against the spread this season, while Orlando is 16-19-1. Orlando will also be coming to visit the Spurs on the second night of a back-to-back.
All signs point to the Spurs, led by DeMar DeRozan and a deep rotation, winning and covering this game. San Antonio’s young core includes Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Dejounte Murray, all scoring more than 11.0 points per game.
Add in the Magic’s best player, Nikola Vucevic, rumored to be on the trading block, and there isn’t much going right for Orlando.
Our final pick of Friday night is the Spurs to cover. Best of luck with all your picks, and enjoy the action!
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
