Golf Betting Tips For the 2021 American Express
Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour has shifted from Hawaii to California and The American Express this week features a complete 156-player field with some decent top-end and depth talent. This event typically hasn't been a huge draw for players, but this year will see more quality golfers than perhaps ever before in the tournament's 61-year history and no pro-am will be happening which is a potential draw for players who don't like being part of the amateur scene (comprised of celebrities and public figures) while in competition.
There's $6.7M to be won this week, the winner gets a tad higher than $1.2M, and also nets himself 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. In a normal year at this event, we see a 54-hole cut line played over three different courses, but this pandemic edition will only use two different tracks and deploy a traditional 36-hole cut line. The TPC Stadium Course is 7,113 yards, is a par 72, and features Bermuda greens, the Nicklaus Tournament Course is 7,154 yards, is also a par 72, and has the same greens consisting of Bermuda. Over the past decade, the average winning score has been -24.5 so it's important that you own golfers who can go low. Invest in golfers who are strong off the tee, solid with their approach, hit lots of greens in regulation, are strong putting on Bermuda, and can put up lots of birdies while avoiding bogeys and especially doubles. Increase your winning probability for each one of your golf bets by using these valuable PGA Tour tools and analytics.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2000 and lower
Patrick Reed (+1500) - Reed pulled out of the Sony Open last week perhaps to prepare a little bit more for the tournament this week which makes me extra interested in him. He won this event 7 years ago so he knows what it takes to win on this track, and tends to hang around the leaderboard in many tournaments he plays in. Again, not sure I would bet an outright winner this week since there really isn't a clear cut favorite in my opinion, plus two different courses are being played on so it creates a bit more of a question mark as well, but a top 10 or 20 for Reed would make for a relatively "safe" bet.
Avoid: Tony Finau (+1700) - This is a small range of golfers this week, especially with Rahm now taking it off, so it was between Finau or Scheffler for the fade and I'm going with Finau. Finau is coming off a T31 finish at the Tournament of Champions in a field of just 42 golfers, so he really didn't fare too well in his first start in 2021. He was T14 here last year so you could place a top 20 bet on him and potentially double your money - I wouldn't fault you for that but I wouldn't take any further risk on Tony this week.
+2100 to +5000
Sungjae Im (+2100) - I'm not a huge pattern guy when it comes to player's golf results but it's interesting to note that Im has gone weak result, strong result, weak result, strong result, weak result, now potentially another strong result to keep the pattern going?! Time will tell, but he has a T12 and a T10 over the past two years at this event, plays what seems like almost every week, and should be good for another solid finish come Sunday. I think a top 10 or 20 bet on him this week would be just fine.
Abraham Ancer (+3000) - Ancer missed the cut on the number last week with a -3 at the Sony Open but you can use this to your advantage since he likely took off right to California on Friday evening so he should be more acclimated to the west coast time than others who played last weekend, and should be more prepared for the two courses this week too. He was runner-up here a year ago and T18 two years ago so he plays well on these tracks, plus he has two top 6's this season between the PGA and European Tour, and prior to last week's missed cut he had three straight top 17's. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour so I wouldn't bet him to win this week, but a top 10 (+550) or 20 (+350) wager are both good value bets in my opinion.
Avoid: Rickie Fowler (+4600) - The Cali-native hasn't been too great this season so far with just a T28 and a T29 as his best two finishes. He did have a T10 here last year but was coming off a T5 and a 9th before that, plus his stats this season to date are absolute garbage in every category. Don't be in a hurry to bet Rickie until he straightens out his golf game... which could be a while yet.
+5100 to +10000
Sam Burns (+5500) - Burns really pops in many key stat categories and already has two top 7's this season in just five starts. He has only played this tournament twice - two years ago he was T18 and he improved on that last year with a T6. The only knock against Burns this week is that he hasn't played competitively since early November, so he's two and a half months removed from PGA Tour play. That isn't going to scare me off of him though - a top 20 bet on him should make you feel quite comfortable this week, or if you want a bigger potential return then bet him top 10 and see if he can go back to back years with those superb finishes.
John Huh (+7000) - Huh has three top 20's this season in only four starts, and his stats are very strong so far including being 2nd in scoring average at just over 69 per round. He was also T3 three years ago here as well so he can navigate this course quite well and I like him a lot as a top 20 bet this week which would return you 3.5x your wager.
Avoid: Gary Woodland (+9000) - Woodland has been god-awful for many, many months now but you can't just blame it on his golf game alone as he has been battling with a torn labrum in his left hip so the injury is likely the biggest culprit. His best finish in five starts this season is a T61 at the Masters and that was a missed cut, so there's nothing doing for the 2019 U.S. Open champ at the moment.
+10100 and higher
Peter Malnati (+11000) - Malnati has been playing some superb golf since early October with four top 21's in six starts - one was a runner-up finish and one was a T5. He was T14 last week at the Sony Open where he opened with a 62 to start his tournament and had another impressive round with a 64 in round 3. He was T18 here two years ago and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts up another top 20 this week - not a bad bet at +400.
Doc Redman (+11000) - The Doc is back in the "building" this week and while he's a bit of a hit or miss bet, he does have a T3 and a T4 this season in six starts. He's coming off a missed cut at The RSM Classic but the last time he missed the cut at the Shriners, he followed it up with a T4 at the Bermuda Championship. He was T29 here a year ago so perhaps a top 30 bet on him makes sense at +250.
Avoid: Ted Potter Jr. (+60000) - There are of course a ton of terrible players in this range so I could have easily picked 20 golfers here, but I went with Ted Potter Jr. who has missed six straight cuts on the PGA Tour and even missed a cut on the Korn Ferry Tour as well in his only play there since June of last year. His best finish is a T67 this season - he did have a T37 here last year and a top 40 bet on him at +450 does sound inviting but that T37 was coming off a T7 at the Sony Open so his form was much better than it is now. Unless Harry Potter gives Ted Potter Jr. some of his magic for this week, then he will likely encounter yet another missed cut.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
