Golf Betting Tips For the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour remains in Southern California for the Farmers Insurance Open this week and it again features a complete 156-player field with some superb top-end and depth talent. This event has always been a popular playing spot amongst top players and this year will be no different with almost half of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world set to play this event.
There's $7.5M to be won this week, the winner receives $1.35M, and also nets himself 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. Much like last week's American Express, two different courses will be played over the first two rounds. Torrey Pines Golf Course is the host venue as per usual for this event, the South Course is the longest on the PGA Tour at 7,765 yards in length, the North Course is 7,258, both are par 72s, and both feature bumpy poa annua greens. The South Course will be played three times this week by players who successfully navigate the cut line, and the North Course will be played a single time by players on either Thursday or Friday. Over the past decade of play, the average winning score has been -12.9, so scoring is higher than we have seen in the last few weeks with more challenging tracks on hand this week. You should look to bet on players who are strong off the tee and keep it on fairways, who can make birdies consistently, are strong on par 5s, are solid putters on poa annua, and are accurate from over 175 yards. Increase your winning probability for each one of your golf bets by using insightful PGA Tour tools and analytics.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2000 and lower
Jon Rahm (+710) - Let's just assume that Rahm's body tweak in his home gym a week or so ago is nothing much to worry about and he's good to go this week. He did say if he had to he could have played last week so he's by no means in serious pain and likely has no playing limitations for this week. Rahm has gone runner-up, T7, and T7 over his past three starts and his worst finish in five starts this season was a T23 at the U.S. Open. He's very consistent and is the favorite to win this week. He has played this tournament four times in his career - he won it in his first look in 2017, was T29 in 2018, T5 in 2019, and was runner-up here last year. If you want to bet him to win, finish top 5, AND finish top 10 I wouldn't blame you one bit. If you put that on a bet slip on DraftKings Sportsbook and put $10 on each one of those outcomes, you stand to make almost $130 if Rahm wins, almost $50 if he's top 5 (where you bet top 5 and 10), or you would double your money if you stay safe and just bet him for a top 10. Keep an eye on his health this week and if he says there are no worries about his condition then you should feel confident in wagering something on him.
Rory McIlroy (+875) - McIlroy had the best round twice last week in Abu Dhabi and flies back to North America with a 3rd from his appearance overseas. We last saw him capture a T5 at the Masters last November, but had he not opened with a 75, we could be talking about him as a career grand slam champion. Nonetheless, he will go down as one of the very best golfers in history and is a serious contender this week. He has only played at this event twice but has a T3 and a T5 in 2020 and 2019, respectively. He seems overdue to win and would make for a good outright bet to win this week, or you could do a top 5 or 10 if you want to be more conservative. I can understand if you have some hesitations about him this week since he's skipping over 12 hours of time zones to get to California from Abu Dhabi, but he should be fine by Thursday at the latest when he takes to his first tee.
Avoid: Xander Schauffele (+1200) - It's very rare that I avoid Schauffele when it comes to placing money on him, especially at courses that he knows extremely well, but he's only 1 for 5 at this event and his best finish is a T25. Perhaps he will breakthrough this year and have a big finish, but I'm not going to take the risk. He has three top 5's so far this season and his worst finishes are T17s, but tournament history really matters this week and I just can't back Xander because of that fact.
+2100 to +5000
Harris English (+2200) - English won two starts ago for his first victory in more than 7 years. I think he has that winning confidence back again and could win again this year thanks to that belief in himself and his game is perhaps stronger than it has ever been in his career. He has five top 10's this season in 8 starts and outside of a solo missed cut at the Shriners, his worst finish is T32. I don't think I would bet English to win this week or even a top 5, but I would look at the top 10 that's +275.
Jason Day (+3500) - Day has been a horse for the course at this event with two wins, and other high finishes as well including his co-runner-up finish in 2014. He obviously feels completely at ease on these two tracks and his results at Torrey Pines have really shone through. He has a T7 and a T12 in his last three starts, but we haven't seen Jason since mid-November so that's perhaps the worry with him this week that he could show some degree of rust, especially in round 1. I think I would be comfortable with a top 20 bet on Day this week at +188 - if he had played more recently and had a top 20 elsewhere then I may get to a top 10 for him, but I think being more conservative with a top 20 is very doable for the Aussie come Sunday.
Avoid: Scottie Scheffler (+3500) - Don't get me wrong, I'm very bullish on Scheffler long-term, but for this week I don't think I want to put money at risk on Scottie. In 8 starts this season he has yet to turn in a top 10 finish and is coming off a missed cut at The American Express last week. He also missed the cut last year at this tournament, and while he could return and play phenomenal this week, I just don't expect it to happen. He hasn't really found his elite groove since contracting COVID-19, and it just might take him a few more weeks or months before he gets back to the form we saw out of him late last season.
+5100 to +10000
Ryan Palmer (+5500) - I'm a big fan of Palmer and really like him this week at an event that he has played very well at over the past few years including his runner-up three years ago, and had he not shot a 77 in his final round last year, he likely would have had another top 5 finish. He's coming of a T41 at the Sony Open, but prior to that start, he had two consecutive T4's at the Tournament of Champions and the ZOZO Championship - both super-elite fields. I think a top 5 and/or a top 10 bet on Ryan this week would be very calculated and smart, or if you want to be more risk-averse, then a top 20 wager would be alright too.
Corey Conners (+7000) - I'm a proud Canadian who grew up just 20 minutes away from Conners, so I might be a bit biased when I suggest him for betting on or in DFS, but his play does back up my interest in him. He has finished anywhere from T8 to T24 over his last five starts and the field strength of each was anywhere from good to great including being at the Masters (T10) and the ZOZO Championship (T8). He has only played here once which was three years ago and he netted himself a T29 - fast forward three years where his game is more polished than ever, and I think he should do very well this week. You can start with a top 20 for Conners and go all the way up to a top 5 should you want to take on more risk and reward.
Avoid: Jordan Spieth (+8500) - How the mighty have fallen. Spieth started his career as a confident and dominant player on the PGA Tour, but things have gone sideways for him over the last two-plus seasons. He's only 3 for 6 this season and his best finish is a T38 which came back in mid-October of last year. Over the past two years at this tournament, he has a T55 and a T35 and that's when he was in better form than he is at the moment. I don't think I would even bet on Jordan making the cut this week - he hasn't played since mid-November so perhaps he has found something over the past 2+ months, we will see, but for now, I'm not a Spieth investor.
+10100 and higher
Doug Ghim (+11000) - Ghimme some mo'! Ghim is coming off of his best PGA Tour start to date with a T5 at The American Express last week, and in 9 starts so far this season he has four other top 25's to compliment that top 5. You can get Ghim at +500 for a top 20 finish this week, or a top 30 for him is currently at +340 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He missed the cut here last year but did put together four good rounds two years ago to secure a T20. His confidence should be higher than it has ever been right now and his golf game matches that sentiment, so I think he's a pretty good player to make a wager on this week.
Matt Jones (+11000) - Jones has made six consecutive cuts with a T4, a T11, and he locked down a T21 last week at The American Express. He was T13 here two years ago so he knows how to navigate the challenging terrain at Torrey Pines, and I think a top 20 or 30 wager on him this week would be nothing to sneeze at.
Avoid: Matt Every (+60000) - My dud for the week is Every - a player who has yet to cash a paycheck in 8 starts so far this season, and he hasn't even been close to playing a weekend round with his best finish being a T86 back in early October in the relatively weak-field of the Sanderson Farms Championship. The two-time PGA Tour winner hasn't won since 2015 and I don't think we will see any more wins any time soon, if ever for him. Interestingly enough, both of his wins came in consecutive years in 2014 and 2015 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in elite fields, so good on him to pick those up before his career went steeply downhill.
Be sure to do lots of due diligence and research on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
