Golf Betting Tips for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour is in week two of four with regards to calling Florida it's home, as we turn our attention to the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, an event that is in its 55th year and its 42nd year at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge. This is an event that Tiger Woods has dominated over the years with 8 wins on his resume - he will be missed this week and we send him and his family nothing but love as he recovers from his unfortunate road accident. The field this week is currently at 123 golfers but should three of the older past winners drop out, we could see as few as 120 players since these three can't be replaced by those on the alternates list.
There's $9.3M to be won this week, the winner pockets $1.674M and is also awarded with 550 FedEx Cup points as well. Since 1979, this tournament has been held at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge - it's 7,454 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermuda. The winning score at this tournament over the last ten years averages -12.8, so expect to see the best score around this number. Last year, Tyrrell Hatton won with a score of just -4 thanks to cold temperatures in the 50's and windy conditions - Rob Oppenheim finished with a score of +25 in 2020 after a +11 on Sunday, yikes! Fortunately, the weather looks gorgeous for this week, so players will fare much better than they did a year ago. The best score to date at this event while at Bay Hill is a -20 by Payne Stewart in 1987. Bet on players this week who are solid with their approach shots, fare well on par 5's, can make several birdies per round, hit greens with regularity, and hit their long irons well from 200+ yards.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2000 and lower
Rory McIlroy (+850) - McIlroy seems to be slowly but surely getting back on track - case in point, he finished T6 last week in the major-like field at the WGC - Workday Championship, and he now comes to a tournament that has seen him win once and finish top 6 in each of the last four years. If he can play how he did last week where he gained in all major stat categories then he should have a fifth straight top 6 at the API - not sure you should bet him outright but a top 5 and/or a top 10 seems like a calculated risk.
Viktor Hovland (+1200) - Hovland is quite possibly my favorite golfer on the PGA Tour right now, not just because of his ridiculous skill set but he also seems like a great guy to have a beer with too. He now has four straight top 6's between the PGA Tour and the European Tour and let's not forget that he won the Mayakoba Golf Classic three months ago in Mexico. He's coming off a co-runner-up finish last week and had he not shot an 8 on a par 4 to conclude his round 2, he could have beaten Morikawa as he finished three strokes back of the winner. He only has a T42 and a T40 at this tournament, but his game has gone to a whole new level over the last few months, and I'm expecting him to be all over the leaderboard once again this week. I think he's the best bet to win this week, so if you're looking for an outright wager, I would go with the Norwegian phenom.
Avoid: Bryson DeChambeau (+1250) - Dechambeau is a high-risk high-reward type of player who needs to be used on courses where bombing it is safe thanks to generous fairways and not so harsh rough. Driving accuracy does matter this week, so I would advise staying away from Bryson even though he has a good track record at the API with two top 4's in his last three years, but that's prior to his huge increase of distance off the tee while sacrificing some control. He comes into the week with a missed cut and the best finish in his last three starts is a T18, but that was on the European Tour. There are better and safer bets out there than DeChambeau this week, I would hold off on betting him until he heats up again and when he's on a course more suitable to his wild drives.
+2100 to +5000
Francesco Molinari (+3000) - Since the calendar has turned to 2021, Molinari has three top 10's in four starts and is coming off a T8 at The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. The last time he played the API he won it in 2019, has two other top 9's in the last five years and his worst finish here in his last four appearances is a T26. I like him as a top 10 bet this week, you could do a top 5 bet but he hasn't had one of those since the 2019 Masters.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2500) - It's quite interesting that Fitzpatrick hadn't been all that impressive on the European Tour and prior to that on the PGA Tour outside of his T12 at The CJ Cup, but fast forward to the last two weeks and he has a T5 and a T11 in elite fields and on fairly challenging courses, Plus, things are looking rosy for him this week too as he has been solid at the API with a T9 last year, a runner-up two years ago, and has been inside the top 13 in three of his last four years. I think you can safely bet him to come in top 20 this week, or even top 10 if you want to take on more risk for more potential reward.
Avoid: Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) - Matsuyama is normally so solid in most stat categories outside of putting, of course, but he has been a bit off for most of the season for some reason. He did have a T15 last week and his stats look good outside of off the tee and he could be turning a corner now, but I'm off him for at least one more week to see if he can play more consistently like he used to. Plus his top finish over the last four years at the API is a T33, so there's not much betting value in him this week.
+5100 to +10000
Marc Leishman (+5500) - Leishman won the API four years ago in 2017, was runner-up a year ago, has three top 7's in his last four years, and finished no worse than T23 over the last five years on this track. He has been relying on his putter more than I'd like to see over his last four starts, but the approach game has been sound for five straight tournaments as has his ball-striking outside of last week. I think you could do a top 5, 10, or 20 bet on Leishman depending on how aggressive you want to be.
Cameron Tringale (+8000) - Tringale always seems to rate out well every week he competes because he's so darn good with his approaches, ball striking, and putting, and consistently gains strokes tee-to-green. He has finished top 30 in six of his last seven starts, and has a T3 and a T7 during that span. He has only competed at this event once in his career but earned a T27 five years ago and his best finish before that week was a T68 with four missed in five starts, so he's very well positioned in comparison, five years later. I like him as a top 20 bet this week, but certainly has the potential to finish top 10.
Avoid: Justin Rose (+7000) - People love to stop to smell the roses but there's not much of a sweet scent coming from Justin these days outside of his runner-up at the Saudi International on the European Tour a month ago. His top finish this season on the PGA Tour was a T17 and that was way back last October at the ZOZO Championship in a smaller field with no cut line. He missed the cut here last year and finished T63 two years ago - before that he was actually quite good at the API, but his best golfing days are behind him now, and you should keep your wallet shut when you hear Rose's name as his thorns are sharp and dangerous with regards to your betting cash flow.
+11000 and higher
Luke List (+11000) - Don't worry about List's lack of putting ability or his short game as he's strong off the tee, has been net positive in four out of his last five events in the approach category, and is a very good ball striker as well. He missed the cut on the number in his most recent start at The Genesis Invitational, but in his three starts before that he had all top 30's including a T10 at the Farmers Insurance Open. The API has been a successful landing spot for him as well with finishes ranging from T7 to T17 between 2017 to 2019, so his game clearly works at this venue. A top 20 wager on him plays well this week or you could go as high as a top 10 if you're looking for a higher potential payout come Sunday evening.
Matthew NeSmith (+11000) - NeSmith has gone T7, T16, and T20 over his last three starts thanks to his very impressive approach and ball striking play. He missed the cut here a year ago but let's just consider that valuable experience that he will leverage this week to not only make the cut, but have a decent finish as well. You could place a top 20 bet on him, but I would recommend a top 30 wager which would still net you more than 3x your money.
Avoid: Matt Every (+60000) - Every won this tournament in back-to-back years in 2014 and 2015, but since then he has four missed cuts and his best finish is a T62, ouch! Perhaps the worst part of it all is that he hasn't made a cut in 11 starts this season and there's no reason to think he will end that nasty streak this week. Even in last week's Puerto Rico Open in a completely terrible field, he finished T100 to miss the cut by a country mile. If you could go back in time and bet him to win in 2014 and 2015 that would be amazing, but if you don't have a time machine then there's no way to make money on him in 2021.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
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Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
