Golf Betting Tips for the 2021 U.S. Open
Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour heads from South Carolina, to the San Diego, California, area for one of the world's biggest tournaments, the U.S. Open - a tournament that began some 126 years ago. Every year we see a different course for the U.S. Open, some have hosted the tournament multiple times but never back-to-back years. This year sees Torrey Pines Golf Course - South Course play host to 156 players where the top 65 plus ties will move onto the weekend to compete to win the U.S. Open Championship trophy.
There's a whopping $12.5M purse this week, the winner will receive a staggering $2.25M, and also collect 600 FedEx Cup points. Torrey Pines Golf Course - South Course is 7,652 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are poa annua. The winning score at this tournament over the past ten years averages just -6.6, the winning score is largely impacted by where they play - Bryson DeChambeau won with a score of -6 last year, right on cue with the decade-long average. The tournament record is held by Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy who both scored -16 in 2017 and 2011, respectively. The winning score at the Farmers Insurance Open which is played annually at Torrey Pines Golf Course, is usually around -10 to -15, but expect a much tougher test this week with the tougher south course being played for all four rounds, thicker rough, and faster greens, so the winning score will almost certainly be in the single digits. Place bets on golfers this week who are strong putting on poa annua, hit a long and accurate ball off the tee, can make lots of birdies, and are sound from tee-to-green.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+1050) - Rahm is now COVID-19 free and ready to continue his strong play after what we saw at the Memorial Tournament when he led by 6 strokes in round 3 but had to withdraw because he tested positive for the virus. He won on this course four years ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, since then he has finished no worse than T29 with a T5, a runner-up, and he was T7 earlier this year. He has been good at the U.S. Open including a T3 two years ago, and he's due to break through and win a major championship at some point in his career, his incredible stats don't lie. Feel free to bet him to win, to finish top 5 and/or finish top 10.
Patrick Reed (+2500) - Reed is one of those players who won't show up a ton in stat models since his stats aren't super impressive outside of his outstanding putting - thankfully for him, that's the most important key stat this week and he's dominant on poa annua greens. Reed won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines earlier this year by five strokes, so we know he can handle this long track, he was T6 last year, T13 in 2019, T23 in 2018, and he has a good track record at the U.S. Open too with a T4, two T13's, and a T14 since 2015. I think a top 10 or 20 bet is absolutely fine for Reed this week, you could do a top 5 bet on him but there's a lot more risk involved there.
Avoid: Justin Thomas (+2250) - I don't often fade Thomas, but since his PLAYERS Championship win in March, he has no top 10's and his best finish was a T13 at the Valspar Championship. His putter has been falling apart lately again as he lost over 8 strokes at the Memorial Tournament and over 6 not long ago, but his other stats look good - he just can't put four solid rounds together to have high finishes at the moment. He does have two top 9's at the U.S. Open over his last four years, but hasn't played Torrey Pines since 2015 and he missed the cut that year. Could he have a top 10 finish this week? Of course, he could, but I don't want to wager any bets on him until he shows consistency with the flat stick again - drive for show, putt for dough.
+2550 to +5000
Collin Morikawa (+2550) - Morikawa has stats that any professional golfer would love to have - he loses strokes with his putting a lot much like Thomas above, but even when he's losing 2 or 3 strokes he still finishes top 10 because he is the best approach player in the world right now. The Cali-native has only played Torrey Pines one time in his career, but he had a T21 last year before his big breakout win at the PGA Championship, and you can certainly expect him to have his best U.S. Open finish this year - he had a T35 two years ago and missed the cut last year. I would feel very comfortable betting him to finish top 10 this week, but you could wager a top 20 if you want to be more conservative. I think a good number of gamblers will bet him outright this week - you can, but there is a ton of star power in the field who have deep knowledge of Torey Pines, so I would be hesitant in doing that.
Will Zalatoris (+4500) - It's just a matter of time before we see Zalatoris hoisting a major championship trophy or putting on the green jacket as he oozes raw talent, has three straight top 8's in major events, and seems calm under pressure which can't be measured in the stats. He finished T7 at Torrey Pines earlier this year, had a T6 at the U.S. Open last year, and it almost seems like the stars are aligning for him to have another huge week this week. I would be all over a top 10 bet on him - feel free to bet him higher or lower depending on your risk tolerance.
Avoid: Matt Fitzpatrick (+5000) - I sort of like all the golfers in this range for one reason or another, but I guess picking one player to fade I'll go with Fitzpatrick. He has missed the cut twice in his last four starts, missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, and could miss his third cut in his last five events this week. I think you could bet him to finish top 30 if you don't want to fade him altogether, but I wouldn't do much more than that - there are better bets to make this week and lots of great options at your disposal.
+5100 to +10000
Jason Kokrak (+5500) - Kokrak recently won the Charles Schwab Challenge where he was absolutely on fire in all stat categories except for around the green, that's his second win of the season, and he has three more top 9's over his last eight starts, as well. I also like his good combination of twenty-something finishes over the last three years at the Farmers Insurance Open, and he had a T17 at the U.S. Open last year. I think you can certainly bet him to finish top 30 this week, or go with a top 20 if you are bullish on him to keep his strong momentum going after his win under three weeks ago.
Charley Hoffman (+9000) - Hoffman has been an animal since February with four top 10's and another five top 18's, and he shows no signs of slowing down despite his T57 at the Memorial Tournament - his weak short game was to blame but he should bounce back nicely this week, recent history shows he will. He finished T9 at Torrey Pines last year and has other good finishes on the track over the years, plus he had a T8 at the U.S. Open four years ago, and a T20 three years ago in his last U.S. Open appearance. I think a top 20 or 30 bet on Charley this week is certainly doable - up to you on which one.
Avoid: Joaquin Niemann (+7500) - I have been quite big on Niemann for a decent portion of the season, but his stats are starting to leak a bit lately, especially his around the green play where he's lost strokes in 8 of his last 9 events. He missed the cut at the Memorial Tournament in his most recent start, and hasn't been a consistently high finisher since earlier this year. He also has no top 20's at Torrey Pines or in U.S. Opens - he will get there to find success in at least one of the two events, but likely not this week.
+11000 and higher
Sam Burns (+11000) - I think a 4th place finish at the Zurich Classic really helped to light a fire under Burns' ass as he won the week after at the Valspar Championship - his first PGA Tour win, then he almost won the Bryon Nelson right after that, and he has the confidence, poise, and talent to win several more times throughout his career. He had a T18 at Torrey Pines this year, and now that he has broken out, I can see him finishing that high again despite an even stronger field in the U.S. Open. I would feel the best about a top 30 bet on him this week, but you could do a top 20 if you want more potential reward come Sunday evening.
Ryan Palmer (+16000) - Palmer was a runner-up at Torrey Pines this year gaining strokes across all major stat categories except for around the green, and he totally dominated the greens gaining almost 8 strokes, that's hard to do on poa annua surfaces since they tend to bud and be bumpy. He also had a co-runner-up finish here three years ago, was T13 in 2019, and T21 last year - safe to say that he knows his way around this course and is comfortable here. He's 15th in birdie average on the season, 19th in eagle average, and is in the top 60 in thirteen different stat categories. I think a top 30 bet on Ryan this week is perfectly fine - the Texan should be good once again at Torrey Pines, and you can profit off it.
Avoid: Lanto Griffin (+16000) - I used to regularly invest in Griffin on a week-to-week basis, but he has been quite bad lately with four missed cuts in his last five tournaments, five missed cuts if you count the Zurich Classic, and he doesn't have a top 20 in over five months. He does have two top 12's at Torey Pines over the last three years, but I just don't like how he's playing at the moment, and will almost always side with recent form versus past tournament results.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
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Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
