Golf Betting Tips for The American Express
Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour moves from Hawaii back to the mainland of the U.S. this week for The American Express in La Quinta, California, for the 62nd edition of the tournament. Arnold Palmer won the first-ever edition of this event back in 1960, blasting a -20 and winning by three strokes over Fred Hawkins. PGA West - Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club have hosted this tournament as a trio for a while now excluding last year due to COVID-19, and we will see these three used this week where each player plays each of the courses on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and the Stadium Course is exclusively used on Sunday for the final round. We have a full field of 156 players in action this week, and there will be a cut line to sweat after round 3 on Saturday where the top 65 players in addition to ties will move onto play the weekend and collect a paycheck.
There's $7.6M on the line to be won this week, the winner banks $1.368M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. The Stadium Course is 7,113 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass, the Nicklaus Tournament Course is a shade longer at 7,204 yards, is also a par 72 and features Bermudagrass greens, and La Quinta Country Club is among the easiest courses on the PGA Tour and measures out to just 7,060 yards, is a par 72, and the greens are also Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the past ten years is -22.3, and with the weather looking pretty good throughout the week, expect the winning score to be around the same number. The tournament record all-time is -36 by Joe Durant in 2001, but that year wasn't played using these three courses exclusively. The best score at this event using the same three-course setup is -26 by Andrew Landry and Adam Long, coming in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Place bets on golfers this week who hit an accurate drive from the tee blocks, are solid off the tee, play a strong tee to green game, can hit a long ball, and are crafty with wedges.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding The American Express this week:
1. Will a superstar win? We have a lot of excellent players in the field this week, but none are better than Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay. Tournaments are always hard to win for any player on any given week, but I expect both of these players to be in contention this week, and I give it a 25% chance that one of them ultimately wins.
2. What should my betting philosophy be? There are all kinds of wagering options this week, but you need to be selective in the bets you make. I would recommend betting no more than two or three golfers outright, and look for value down the board for the players who have good odds to finish top 20, top 30, and top 40.
3. How much does course history matter? If you look heavily at past year's results and highly value that information, then this tournament will be enjoyable to you since the regulars here tend to play well over time.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+500) - With six top 9 finishes in his last seven starts, you know that Rahm is ready to go every time he laces up his golf shoes. He hasn't lost strokes in the ball-striking stat category since August 2020, and is great in every facet of his game, plus he has that hunger to win and that's something you just can't teach. He won here four years ago, was 6th here three years ago, and broke in here in 2017 when he had a T34 finish. He's safe to bet to win, finish top 5, or top 10, or all three if you want to go in hard on the Spaniard this week.
Patrick Cantlay (+900) - He has such outstanding results almost every time he plays, and that's not as much as we would like as he has only competed once this season and that was two weeks ago at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, so he's at least fresh. Cantlay won the Tour Championship last season, and was victorious three other times as well including his Memorial Tournament win and he won the second leg of the playoffs at the BMW Championship where he gained an atrocious 14.58 strokes putting. He was runner-up here last year thanks to gaining 5.23 strokes ball-striking and 6.61 putting, and his first look at this event in 2019 netted him a T9 through strong approach play. You can bet him any way you would like to this week, I would advise betting him to win and either a top 5 or a top 10 depending on how much you want to hedge.
Avoid: Tony Finau (+2000) - I'm not too down on any of these players in this range, but I'll single out Finau this week since he hasn't been as sharp since winning THE NORTHERN TRUST last August with just one top 10 coming and it was at the Hero World Challenge last month in a field of just 39 golfers. He keeps bleeding strokes on the greens and the rest of his stats haven't been too impressive lately either. He has two top 14's here over the last two years, but his previous two starts here include a missed cut and a T59, and I think he will have a mediocre finish come Sunday - if he makes the cut on Saturday.
+2600 to +5000
Seamus Power (+2800) - His stock just keeps rising with consistently high finishes since last May including a win and five other top 9's during that span - two of them have come in his last three starts including a T3 last week in Hawaii where he gained 10.68 strokes total. I think you can bet Power to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 depending on how aggressive you want to be with the talented Irishman.
Matthew Wolff (+2800) - Now that he has cleaned up his mental health issues a bunch, and congrats to him for doing so, his golf game is taking off with four straight top 17's including a 2nd at the Shriners Children's Open three starts ago, a T5 at the World Wide Technology Championship two starts ago, and he had a T11 at the Houston Open in his most recent start last November. He could show some rust this week or he could flash more brilliance, I'm betting on the latter. Much like Power above, you can bet Wolff the same way this week.
Avoid: Russell Henley (+3500) - He had a 2nd last week in Hawaii, but you got to wonder where Henley's head is at after coughing up the lead late on Sunday afternoon and settling for the runner-up after losing to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff. He's a great ball-striker, and he flashed brilliance on the greens last week gaining 5.90 strokes on the field, but the last time he putted that well, the next week he lost 7.64 strokes, so his flat stick could be due to regress again. If that wasn't enough, he has missed the cut here in four straight years, and his best finish in six starts is a T49.
+5100 to +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000) - He regularly gains strokes on approach and last week was no different in Hawaii as he gained 3.42 en route to a T17. Bezuidenhout has two top 17's in his last three starts and he has the tools to keep the party going this week. He's a rookie at this tournament but I like him to finish top 20, and that's how I would bet him, as well.
Michael Thompson (+9000) - The stars are aligning for Thompson as he finished T5 last week in Hawaii where his approach game and putter were in fine form, and he finished T5 here last year, as well. He also finished T9 here three years ago, and seems like a good bet to finish top 10 or top 20 this week, so you can bet him that way, or go with the top 30 wager if you like him, but not quite as much as I do.
Avoid: Carlos Ortiz (+8000) - Some gamblers will be looking at Ortiz this week since he finished 2nd in his most recent start, but that was in his native Mexico where he regularly dominates play. Prior to that impressive result, his last top 10 was last February at the Phoenix Open where he gained 7.48 strokes putting - an outlier performance for him. In four starts at this event, he has two missed cuts, a T48, and a T65 - I'm out on Ortiz this week and most weeks quite honestly.
+11000 and higher
K.H. Lee (+13000) - He won last May at the Byron Nelson where he gained 8.27 strokes on approach and 9.80 ball-striking, and while Lee hasn't been as good since, he has four top 25's in his last seven starts including a T12 at the BMW Championship which is an elite field, playoff event. He has two top 32's over the last two years here including a T21 two years ago where he gained strokes across the board except around the green. I think betting him to finish top 20, top 30, or top 40 this week makes sense.
Vincent Whaley (+15000) - He has been on a fairly good run since last August with four top 10's and another top 15 in ten starts between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour. More recently, Whaley has two top 15's including a T7 at the Bermuda Championship, and he had a T29 here two years ago thanks to sound ball-striking and putting. He holds some value this week as a top 30 or a top 40 bet.
Avoid: Brian Gay (+50000) - Gay actually won this tournament in 2013, but since then he has six missed cuts in seven starts, and his best finish during that time period was a T42 in 2018. He has been a mess lately too with mostly all missed cuts since winning the Bermuda Championship in November 2020. If you can find a site to bet him to miss the cut then lay down $100 and lick your lips all the way to the bank with a $105 total payout!
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
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Jeremy Campbell
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.
