NHL Betting Trends: Capitalizing on Period Props

Written by Chris Wassel

March 19, 2019

Delving into the world of NHL betting trends, in particular,  "Period Props" can be quite intriguing. It can hook you right in and there is one team in particular that drives the betting worldwide. That team, this season is of course, is the Chicago Blackhawks. 

How the Chicago Blackhawks Started their own Trend

It is crazy but the resurgence of Patrick Kane and Chicago did not quite start out the way most expected. Chicago is still bad defensively but now they score as much or more than their opponents. On the season, the first period over/under has hit more than 70% of the team. This includes a run where 22 of 25 instances hit. Naturally, the pace of play helps as Chicago plays "unsafe at any speed" hockey. One never knows when all of a sudden the goals will come and they do in bunches. Consider 173 goals (36% of regulation scores) come during the opening 20 minutes by Chicago and their opponents combined. The second period featured just 152 goals, by comparison. That represented a significant dropoff. Fortunately, the third period bounces back a bit up to 155 goals but it is that first period where fans and bettors zero in on. 

A standard first period over/under is set at 1.5. Quite a few times this season, Chicago's has been upped to 2. That happened recently against the Toronto Maple Leafs. In that game, the over/under itself was easily at 7 and briefly flirted with 7 1/2. There are teams which have gone on runs like this before but not in this era. Goal scoring is up around six goals a game this year (most can remember a time when 5.5 or lower was the norm). For some perspective, Blackhawks games come in at 7.09 goals per contest. That is a full goal per game above average. If one does some quick math, nearly 2.5 of those goals happen in the opening stanza. 

There are a few obvious reasons for this. However, looking at the rankings helps make the stat jump off the page. Chicago has the worst penalty kill in the league at 72.96%. Also, they are second most when it comes to shots allowed at 2446. They are 12th in the league themselves but 4th in the NHL since January 1. Furthermore, their power play is among the top-three in the league after New Years' Day. As for Kane, he scored 49 points in 29 games since January 1 which calculates out to 1.69 points per game. Nikita Kucherov has fewer points per game in that span (1.61 per night) even. When a team is led by those kinds of dynamic offensive forces, goals are bound to come in bunches if they have any credible offensive depth. Chicago has plenty of secondary scoring in the form of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, and Jonathan Toews among others. The emergence of Erik Gustafson (on a nearly 60-point pace) has energized the Chicago team from the backend. 

Fortunately for bettors, this trend still has some staying power albeit not at the level we saw during the middle of the season. So, what exactly is a period prop? Let us explain it in terms of the types of period props.

Types of "Period Props"

• First Period Over/Under -- This prop takes into account the opening 20 minutes. It assumes a set amount of 1.5 a vast majority of the time. Every so often, it can be as high as 2 or even 2.5 like in Chicago Blackhawks games. Also, this occurs in games with higher overall over/unders. If there is a run of the over hitting, seeing a -140 or -150 moneyline is not uncommon. For example, the March 15th game between the Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs has the first period over/under of 2 but the under comes in at a -138. Alas, this is because Toronto has struggled in first periods of late. The second and third-period props are similar -- just a different time frame. 
• Period Money Line -- Again, this breaks down the money line by the period. If one expects a team to start out hot, then it makes sense to take a shot and bet the money line. With this type of prop, there is a bit more risk. Also, the reward is more profitable. Seeing +200 and +250 level numbers is not uncommon for an underdog. The favorites can have a range of +100 to +150 most of the time. Sometimes with a team like Tampa Bay, there is a negative. That is rare. With the period money line, there is the option of seeing a draw. The draw usually falls in between the two extremes. 
• Period Total Goals Odd/Even -- This represents another self-explanatory concept as it involves guessing whether a period will have an odd or even amount of goals. Numbers are mostly like the game version of the over/under. There is not a lot of risks typically. 
• Period Total Goals -- Period total goals come down to how many goals will be scored in a given period. There are choices from none up to 3 or more. In higher scoring games, the none is riskier while the 3 or more is dicier with lower scoring matchups. Researching scoring trends is always essential with these props -- especially period props. 
• Period Both Teams To Score -- Simply, guessing which team will score or will both teams tally a goal is a question here. The rule of thumb is the second period features a better likelihood of both teams scoring a goal. 

As always, bet responsibly and best of luck! 

Chris Wassel

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Chris is a passionate hockey writer who writes everything from features to daily fantasy to sports betting. Hockey is the main name of the game. From being a regular on The Sweat to doing things with Dobberhockey and beyond, the goal is the same -- provide quality content with a good deal of edge. When one has written for the last 15 years or so, the realization that adaptation is essential is obvious. From Twitter, the goal is to take on all questions and bring it to the FantasyData arena. Let's get started!