Three NBA Games to Target Wednesday
There’s a loaded NBA slate to bet on Wednesday night. As we close in on the end of the regular season, it’s best to focus on teams playing for playoff seeding. My favorite games to target include teams fighting to stay above the sixth seed or to secure their spot in the play-in tournament. As a reminder, seeds 7 through 10 will play a play-in tournament to determine the final two seeds in the playoffs.
Here are a few games of interest: our favorite NBA games to target Wednesday.
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
The first game that falls in the above category is the Boston Celtics heading down to Florida to take on the Orlando Magic.
The Celtics are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, a game back of the Miami Heat. With just a few regular-season contests remaining, these games are crucial for Boston to secure their spot in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Orlando comes in 21-44, the second-worst team in the East. Boston is a tough team to gauge, but on paper, they are the far superior team to Orlando. Boston’s offense and defense both rank inside the top-15 of the NBA, while the Magic are a bottom-ten team on both ends. With Jaylen Brown out Wednesday, Jayson Tatum (26.5 points per game) will be far and away the best player on the floor Wednesday night. It’s the presence of Tatum that makes the best bet in this game a bet on the Celtics to cover.
Beyond the talent, there is reason to believe Boston can take down Orlando handedly. Boston prefers to shoot the three, top-ten in the NBA in threes made. The Magic are a bottom-ten defense at stopping the outside shot. With three-point shooters throughout the lineup, the Celtics matchup favorably with Orlando.
This is the third and final meeting between these two teams, with the Celtics winning both games so far. The scores of those games were 124-97 and 112-96. I’d expect another double-digit win for Boston Wednesday night.
On the season, Boston is 30-34-1 against the spread, Orlando is 31-32-2.
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets
This Knicks-Nuggets should be a good game, with both teams having plenty to play for.
New York has climbed their way into fourth place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they’d like to remain.
Denver is a top-four seed in the West, with nearly no chance of falling lower than that before the playoffs begin. With the Lakers as the likely fifth-seed, Denver has more than enough motivation to avoid the four-seed and instead play for the three or better. As such, we’re treated to a rare game between two teams squarely in the mix.
New York’s success starts on the defensive end, owners of one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. Beyond their smothering defense that holds teams to 105.0 points per game, Julius Randle has been a revelation. Randle is averaging 24.2 points per game, 10.2 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. His all-around game has elevated the rest of this roster, the Knicks are having their best season in years.
The Nuggets are led by likely MVP Nikola Jokic. With Jamal Murray out for the season, this is now completely Jokic’s team. The center is on a tear, averaging 26.3 points per game, 10.9 rebounds, and 8.5 assists. I like the Knicks to cover the spread in this one, 9-1 in their last ten games. The Knicks have the athletic big men capable of staying on Jokic and shutting him down.
These teams did meet back in January, with Denver winning. Despite that, this is a different Knicks team playing as well as anyone in the league. On the season, New York is an NBA-best 42-22-1 ATS. Denver is 31-34 ATS.
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves
The final game of interest for Wednesday night is because of just how bad the Minnesota defense is. When looking at points per game and shooting efficiency, Minnesota is the second-worst defense in the entire NBA.
This is music to the Grizzlies' ears, and it’s why one of my favorite bets of the night is Jonas Valanciunas over points. No team scores more in the paint than Memphis - aided by Valanciunas’ 16.8 points per game. The Timberwolves' defense is the sixth-most generous defense to points in the paint, perfectly aligning with the big man’s game.
Valanciunas was the leading scorer for Memphis in both games played between these teams this season. Expect him to make that a third time on Wednesday night. Valanciunas has slowed his scoring a bit late, which makes this pick all the more enticing. His back-to-back 11 point outings will bring this line lower, a perfect time to pounce on a misvalued line.
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Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
