Totals to Consider Betting Monday in the NBA
Our last full week of NBA action is here - let’s finish the regular season strong. Here are a few totals to consider betting Monday in the NBA.
Check out the latest NBA Over/Under lines here.
Indiana Pacers-Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 230.5 points
It’s hard to ignore the points the Pacers and their opponents have been putting up as of late. Whether it’s their fast pace, vulnerable defense, or scoring in the paint, Indiana games have gone over - a lot.
The Pacers have the best record in the NBA against over/unders, at 41-25-1. As a whole, the Indiana offense is inching closer to being a top-ten unit in the NBA.
They’ll get a Cleveland defense that is in the bottom-five of the league - a choice matchup for the Pacers. The key difference-maker for this over bet is the advantage each team has in the paint. The Pacers score the third-most points in the paint, with the Cavaliers not far behind at sixth overall.
Neither defense has shown an ability to stop interior scoring all season. The Pacers are dead last at opponent points in the paint, and Cleveland ranks 27th. Not only can we expect plenty of points, but this is a terrific game to target a few player props.
Domantas Sabonis is the best target for Indiana, and Collin Sexton is an ideal player for Cleveland. Sexton averages over 24 points per game, while Sabonis averages 20.5.
Washington Wizards-Atlanta Hawks OVER 236.5 points
As the regular season winds down - the best strategy to hold close is to try and target games where both teams are playing for something. We check that box with this Wizards-Hawks game Monday night, and there’s plenty to like from a points perspective.
There aren’t many teams winning more games lately than the Wizards, solidifying themselves in the play-in tournament. Atlanta has been one of the steadiest Eastern Conference teams this season, likely the four or five seed.
Washington is one of the best teams to follow for over bets thanks to a strong scoring offense coupled with an awful defense. No team allows more points per game than the Wizards - but they make up for it with a top-five scoring offense. The points are in large part due to the pace of play Washington plays at. Pace, broken down by field goals attempted, and possessions per game, puts the Wizards as one of the five fastest teams in the NBA. The Wizards, like the game above, should also have an advantage in the paint. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook lead this offense, with a preference for inside scoring. Atlanta owns a bottom-ten defense stopping points in the paint.
Lest us not forget about Atlanta, owners of an efficient, well-balanced offense. The Hawks should have no issues scoring against this porous Washington defense.
Trae Young’s 25.4 points per game leads this strong Hawks offense. Expect big games for all the guards in this one - and the points should come for each team.
On the season, Washington is 35-33 against over/unders. Atlanta is 34-34.
Milwaukee Bucks TEAM TOTAL OVER 233.5 points against San Antonio Spurs
We can expect plenty of points in this Bucks-Spurs game simply because of pace. Both teams rank inside the top-ten of pace, suggesting a fast game on both ends. With more shots come more opportunities for points - and it’s a bet we’ll follow on Monday night.
In particular, there’s a lot to like on the Milwaukee end. San Antonio is one of the worst defenses at stopping points in the paint. In comes, Giannis Antetokounmpo, averaging 28.2 points per game. The reigning MVP does the majority of his work at the rim - the Spurs lack a defender to slow him down.
Elsewhere, the Milwaukee offense actually prefers to shoot the three, making the third-most threes per game in the NBA. San Antonio also has issues guarding the perimeter, with opponents' three-point percentage ranking 23rd.
Load up on the Bucks side of the ball in this intra-conference match.
Utah Jazz-Golden State Warriors OVER 227 points
Our final bet to target on Monday night is one more over. For starters, this game goes back to our preference for two teams with something at stake.
The Jazz and Warriors have two of the best offenses in the NBA, and both prefer to shoot plenty of threes. The more long balls, the better when looking at overs. This line is likely to be kept low because of each team owning a strong defense - which just means we’re getting strong value.
This is the third game between the Jazz and Warriors this season - with both overs hitting. The first game was a 127-108 final, and the second finished at 131-119. The Warriors are looking to lock up the eighth seed in the play-in tournament - we can expect one more big game from this offense.
Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
