4 Free NBA Play-in Betting Picks
NBA Free Picks
The NBA playoff field is set, and we’re on to the play-in tournament to determine the final two seeds for each conference. A refresher on the format: 7 plays 8, with the winner securing the seventh seed. 9 plays 10, and the winner of that game plays the loser of 7 vs. 8. Whoever wins that game makes it to the playoffs as the eighth seed. It’s a simple structure, with three total games for each conference. Let’s break down the first games of the tournament to see how the teams match up.
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#10 Charlotte Hornets at #9 Indiana Pacers
The Eastern Conference will have the first play-in games of the tournament. Hornets at Pacers will get us started, with action tipping off Tuesday night at 6:40 PM EST.
Indiana has opened as three-point favorites, with an over/under set at 229 points. On paper, these two teams match up pretty evenly. The Hornets prefer to shoot the three, and the Pacers guard the perimeter well. Indiana prefers to do their scoring inside, and Charlotte’s defensive strength is protecting the paint.
Beyond preferences, Indiana is a more balanced team on both ends. Their offense ranks inside the top-ten while Charlotte owns a bottom-ten defense. That alone tips the scales here, bet Indiana to advance in the play-in tournament and to cover the -3 spread.
#8 Washington Wizards at #7 Boston Celtics
The second Eastern Conference play-in will get started Tuesday at 9 PM EST between the Wizards and Celtics. The host Celtics are currently 1½-point favorites, with an over/under set at 233 points.
Throw out the offensive and defensive ranks in this one; these are two teams heading in different directions. The Wizards are 16-6 since April 7, while Boston ended their season 5-9. The loss of Jaylen Brown is going to be tough for the Celtics to overcome. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook have done it all for Washington and should be able to take care of business against the reeling Celtics.
If Boston wins this game, it will be on the back of Jayson Tatum. Tatum, averaging over 26 points per game and shooting nearly eight threes per game, will have to do it all. The Washington defense is average guarding the perimeter, leaving room for Tatum to get hot.
Momentum tells us to bet Washington to cover the +1.5. Hedge the pick with betting on Tatum’s over.
#10 San Antonio Spurs at #9 Memphis Grizzlies
The first Western Conference play-in game will be between the Spurs and Grizzlies, with the opening tip scheduled for 7:30 PM EST.
Memphis has opened as 3½-point favorites, with an over/under set at 223 points. The Grizzlies should be able to get by the Spurs with relative ease, thanks to one key advantage. Memphis ranks first in the NBA in points in the paint, while San Antonio ranks 26th guarding shots near the rim.
Ja Morant and company should get to the hoop with regularity and pull ahead in this one.
Bet Memphis to cover the -3.5 spread, but our favorite bet in this one is actually a bet on total points. Pace of play can be calculated by total field goals attempted per game and possessions per game. When breaking that down, the Grizzlies and Spurs come in as two of the fastest teams in the NBA.
With an over set at just 223 points, bet on plenty of points in this one.
#8 Golden State Warriors at #7 Los Angeles Lakers
The most anticipated play-in game of the opening slate is between the last two champions from the Western Conference, the Warriors, and the Lakers. The high-profile game will tip off Wednesday at 10 PM EST.
The defending champion Lakers are five-point favorites, with an over/under set at 220 points.
Los Angeles finds themselves in the play-in tournament due to the extended absences of their two stars: LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Both are now back in the lineup and should be able to win one of their two chances at securing a spot in the postseason. Golden State is in the mix thanks to Steph Curry, the winner of the league’s scoring title. Curry finished the year averaging 32.0 points per game, shooting 42.1% from beyond the arc.
Both teams also own top-ten defenses in the NBA. The Warriors obviously prefer to do their scoring from deep, third in threes made per game. Los Angeles does a bit of everything well on defense but matches up well with Golden State here: second in three-point defense.
The Lakers prefer to do their scoring inside, seventh in points in the paint. The Warriors rank 13th in opponent’s points in the paint. With their stars back in the fold and a slight edge across the board, the bet here is for the Lakers to win and cover the spread.
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Derek Hudson
Derek is a long time sports bettor who grew up in Providence, RI. Derek is data driven and believes the key to betting the sportsbooks is finding an edge in analytics. Derek is happily married and has two young boys. Derek will bet on anything if you let him.
